Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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132 FXUS63 KPAH 270452 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few storms this afternoon will depart leaving a dry end to the work week. - Shower and storm chances return on Saturday and may linger into the first half of Sunday. Another rain chance returns next Wednesday. - Pattern ahead features a back and forth battle between oppressive heat and short periods of relief in between. Saturday and next Wednesday are forecast to be the most uncomfortable days of the next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A 500mb shortwave trough moving across the lower Ohio Valley is resulting in a rather expansive cloud deck. Remnants of a morning MCS over Missouri are resulting in some light to moderate showers through the area. Some marginal instability is present which should allow a few thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon. The severe threat looks quite low, but a pulse storm capable of some small hail or gusty winds can`t be ruled out. We`ve already seen some very hefty rainfall rates from earlier convection (4-5" in Poplar Bluff area this morning) which resulted in flash flooding. With precipitable water values remaining quite high (2.2 inches), some localized flooding issues are still possible. High pressure building down across the region tonight through Thursday will usher in a less humid airmass. Dewpoints will fall into the low to mid 60s making for a choice day to be outside on Thursday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. As southerly flow kicks back in on Friday, our humidity levels trend up again (near 70 dewpoints) and temperatures reach around 90. The forecast over the next 7 days will feature a back and forth battle between fairly comfortable and cooler days (Thursday and Monday), in-between days where it`s hot, but humidity isn`t awful yet (Friday and Tuesday), and oppressive days where you instantly sweat the moment you walk outside (Saturday and next Wednesday). A frontal boundary sinking south into the region Saturday and Saturday night will be accompanied by our next chance for showers and storms. The stronger wind fields remain north of our area, but we may still tap into 25-30 kts of deep layer shear. This combined with plenty of instability and high amounts of low level moisture could lead to some severe storms. Right now it looks like convection may hold off until later in the day or evening, which if so would result in very hot and humid conditions during the day. Similar to what we experienced yesterday with highs reaching the mid 90s coupled with dewpoints in the mid to possibly upper 70s resulting in heat index readings of 105 to 110. Looks like a slam dunk Heat Advisory day at the moment. Sunday will be a transition day where we may still have some lingering rain to deal with in the morning and early afternoon. Drier air will be funneling into the region with dewpoints falling into the 60s again. High pressure overhead on Monday will offer us another day similar to Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s and more comfortable humidity. The upper level ridge builds back north into our area Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. This will allow temperatures to rebound back into the 90s. Increasing humidity will be felt on Tuesday, but Wednesday looks like a near-repeat of Saturday with heat index readings over 105 due to moisture pooling ahead of another frontal boundary. Certainly could see another round of strong to severe storms during this time period as well. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Clouds cover continues to decrease late this evening. Mostly clear skies are expected across at least the western two-thirds of the area which would include CGI/PAH/MVN. These areas have the best chance of seeing fog development overnight. Otherwise other than passing mid/high clouds, skies will be mostly clear. Calm to variable winds tonight will increase from the northeast between 5-10 knots Thursday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...AD