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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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330 FXUS63 KPAH 300623 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 123 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms quickly diminish after daybreak as a cold front moves through the region. Cooler conditions with much lower humidity can be expected later this afternoon through Monday. - The heat and humidity returns again by the middle of the week with heat index values around 100-105 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front eventually moves through by next weekend. - An unsettled pattern with daily chances of showers and storms begins on Wednesday and continues through Saturday. There is the potential for heavy rainfall and possibly some flash flooding. Although there is not a strong signal for scattered severe storms, Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening may be when the ingredients are slightly better for the 4th of July. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Sfc observations upstream this morning show a cold front now pushing southeast of the St Louis metro where dewpoints are quickly falling into the 60s. This will eventually put an to the ample humidity as dewpoints are still near 80 degrees across many locations. In the wake of fropa, the CAMs show a disorganized cluster of scattered showers and storms moving east across the FA through 12z before pcpn tapers off shortly after. Did limit PoPs to a 40-50% chance as models continue to struggle compared to current obs. The frontal boundary remained just slow enough to prevent the better forcing from overcoming the cap that was in place for much of yesterday. Mesoanalysis does show about 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE still in place, but instability will gradually wane through daybreak. Given poor low-level lapse rates, think the main concern with any storms at this point will be lightning and torrential downpours with PWATs between 2.00-2.25 inches, but a gusty storm still cannot be ruled out. Behind the front, sfc high pressure builds into the FA as northerly winds advect in much lower dewpoints this afternoon into the evening. In fact, most locations will see a 25-30 degree drop in the dewpoint by 06z tonight when 50s and even a few 40s are progged. Given model soundings support a deep dry layer around 850 mb mixing down late this afternoon along with CAA, went with CONSShort for dewpoints as it is likely to end up on the lower side. The dry air may also mean a brief uptick in a few wind gusts around 17 to 20 mph before sunset as there will be a modest increase in the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, not only will there be big relief from the humidity, but maxTs will only be in the low to mid 80s today with minTs falling into the mid 50s to near 60 degrees tonight. Tranquil conditions and low humidity prevail into Monday with maxTs only in the low 80s. The unseasonably cool conditions will not last for long as a trough exits the northeast and allows for a ridge over the southern Plains to build into the FA with rising heights. Southerly return flow will quickly cause WAA along with an increase in humidity for the middle of the week. By Wednesday, dewpoints once again may reach the mid to upper 70s causing the heat index to rise back near 100-105 degrees, with the heat and humidity continuing into the 4th of July. The pattern also turns quite unsettled as a series of leading shortwaves ahead of a more broad 500 mb trough that digs across the northern Plains provides forcing for ascent. Multiple waves of showers and storms are possible Wednesday through Saturday before a cold front eventually moves through. It is still not out of the question a round or two of scattered severe storms occurs at some point. The GFS would suggest Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening may be a time to monitor when better shear may line up with instability when the nose of a 45 kt jet max at 700 mb passes by. However, the heavy rain and flash flooding potential may end up being the bigger concern as the ESATs show a strong signal for robust water vapor transport around the 90th percentile with westerly flow along with PWATs once again above the 95th percentile. There is still lots of uncertainty, but it does appear we will be entering a wet pattern for the holiday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Isolated to scattered shra possible through 12z, with an isolated tsra not out of the question at mainly KCGI/KPAH/KMVN. Tsra chance now too low to include in TAF. VFR conditions expected with mainly mid clouds overnight, with clouds scattering out through the morning hours. Southwest winds around 5kts will become northwest through 12z with the passage of a cold front. After 12z, northwest to north winds will be 5-10 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...RST