758
FXUS63 KPAH 262327
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few storms this afternoon will depart leaving a dry
  end to the work week.

- Shower and storm chances return on Saturday and may linger
  into the first half of Sunday. Another rain chance returns
  next Wednesday.

- Pattern ahead features a back and forth battle between
  oppressive heat and short periods of relief in between.
  Saturday and next Wednesday are forecast to be the most
  uncomfortable days of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A 500mb shortwave trough moving across the lower Ohio Valley is
resulting in a rather expansive cloud deck. Remnants of a morning
MCS over Missouri are resulting in some light to moderate showers
through the area. Some marginal instability is present which should
allow a few thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon. The
severe threat looks quite low, but a pulse storm capable of some
small hail or gusty winds can`t be ruled out. We`ve already seen
some very hefty rainfall rates from earlier convection (4-5" in
Poplar Bluff area this morning) which resulted in flash flooding.
With precipitable water values remaining quite high (2.2 inches),
some localized flooding issues are still possible.

High pressure building down across the region tonight through
Thursday will usher in a less humid airmass. Dewpoints will fall
into the low to mid 60s making for a choice day to be outside on
Thursday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. As
southerly flow kicks back in on Friday, our humidity levels trend up
again (near 70 dewpoints) and temperatures reach around 90.

The forecast over the next 7 days will feature a back and forth
battle between fairly comfortable and cooler days (Thursday and
Monday), in-between days where it`s hot, but humidity isn`t awful
yet (Friday and Tuesday), and oppressive days where you instantly
sweat the moment you walk outside (Saturday and next Wednesday).

A frontal boundary sinking south into the region Saturday and
Saturday night will be accompanied by our next chance for showers
and storms. The stronger wind fields remain north of our area, but
we may still tap into 25-30 kts of deep layer shear. This combined
with plenty of instability and high amounts of low level moisture
could lead to some severe storms. Right now it looks like convection
may hold off until later in the day or evening, which if so would
result in very hot and humid conditions during the day. Similar to
what we experienced yesterday with highs reaching the mid 90s
coupled with dewpoints in the mid to possibly upper 70s resulting in
heat index readings of 105 to 110. Looks like a slam dunk Heat
Advisory day at the moment.

Sunday will be a transition day where we may still have some
lingering rain to deal with in the morning and early afternoon.
Drier air will be funneling into the region with dewpoints falling
into the 60s again. High pressure overhead on Monday will offer us
another day similar to Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s and
more comfortable humidity.

The upper level ridge builds back north into our area Tuesday into
Wednesday of next week. This will allow temperatures to rebound back
into the 90s. Increasing humidity will be felt on Tuesday, but
Wednesday looks like a near-repeat of Saturday with heat index
readings over 105 due to moisture pooling ahead of another frontal
boundary. Certainly could see another round of strong to severe
storms during this time period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Rain showers are beginning to clear out across the region with a
couple hours of MVFR possible at OWB. A few showers remain
possible this evening but shouldn`t have much in the way of
impacts. Clouds will begin to clear out from west to east. This
may, along with light winds, allow for fog development. Low
confidence at this time but CGI and MVN seem to have the better
chance of this.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...AD