024
FXUS61 KRNK 290604
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
204 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday
pushing a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region along with
isolated showers. Dry and cooler high pressure will build in
behind this front for Thursday and Friday with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) A few showers expected again this afternoon with frontal
passage...

Overall pattern features trough in the east and ridging over the
west. Another shortwave embedded within the longwave flow will
pass across the region this afternoon. Mix of sun and clouds
today, starting the day with mostly clear skies, but will have
clouds develop throughout the day. Will be enough lift with the
passage of this wave/cold front for isolated showers in the
afternoon. Best chance for any precipitation will be across the
mountains and southern Shenandoah Valley.

Winds also breezy in advance of the front. West winds will
increase by late morning and will remain gusty into the
afternoon. Some 20mph range gusts possible in the higher
terrain.

Cooler/drier air arrives behind the front tonight with
temperatures dropping into the low 50s and upper 40s in the
mountains. Mid 50s for the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers in the mountains Wednesday evening and
Thursday, otherwise dry through the period.
2. Below normal temperatures.

A large upper low will be centered over eastern Canada through the
end of the workweek. A shortwave will rotate through the base of the
trough Wednesday night, which may spark some scattered showers in
the western mountains, though this activity will quickly wane after
sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Another wave traverses the
trough Thursday afternoon, and could bring additional chances of
showers, though most of the shower activity at this time looks to be
much farther east, near coastal VA and NC. The drier airmass over
the region will help to limit any showers in the area. A broad area
of surface high pressure will build in as the trough axis shifts
east of the area by late Thursday and through Friday, which will
keep Friday dry.

The surface high that will become situated overhead builds in from
the north, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region. Winds
will be generally northwesterly through the forecast period, but
turn easterly as the high moves in. Below normal temperatures,
northwesterly winds, and lower dewpoints will make it feel cool
for the end of the month. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s,
possibly dropping into the low 40s for the typical cold spots by
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures on a warming trend, and dry weather through most
of the weekend.

2. Rain chances increase next work week.

Surface high pressure will be settled over much of the eastern US
through most of the weekend, moving eastward and offshore by late
Sunday. Mid level flow transitions to more zonal by Sunday, with a
shortwave trough expected to move along it and into the area late in
the weekend, while an area of surface low pressure heads eastward
into the northern Mid Atlantic. Return flow off the Atlantic from
the high as it tracks eastward will increase moisture in the region,
and with the passage of the shortwave, expecting chances for showers
and possible thunderstorms to return to the area by Sunday
afternoon. Chances for afternoon showers and storms continue Monday
and Tuesday, though confidence is lower on timing and coverage,
given the spread in the long range deterministic guidance.

Subsidence from the surface high and ample daytime heating will
start temperatures on a warming trend through the forecast period,
and highs are expected to climb back to seasonal normals, in the 70s
to 80s, and lows in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mostly VFR throughout the valid TAF period.

VFR this morning, but the potential for some patchy valley fog
still remains through daybreak. LWB may experience some vsby
reductions.

Otherwise VFR with scattered clouds through late morning.
Another disturbance may bring a few shower/storms toward BLF/LWB
this afternoon but coverage is too low overall to have in the
tafs.

The wind backs to the west ahead of the wave/front today with
some gustiness to 20 kts possible, then shifts to the northwest
behind the front tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR much of the week, aside from potential fog at LWB/BCB early
in the mornings. Storms may bring sub-VFR Sunday afternoon but
low confidence.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG