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000
FXUS61 KRNK 110832
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
432 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong weather system will cross the area today bringing the
potential for severe storms, locally heavy rain and gusty winds. The
gusty winds will follow this system Friday into Saturday with some
residual showers across Southeast West Virginia. After a break in
the active weather on Sunday, a weak disturbance may cross the area
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Strong low pressure system to bring chance for severe storms,
locally heavy rain, and gusty winds today into this evening.

Rather complex fcst as large deepening sfc low tracks NEWD across
the eastern CONUS today. Currently much of the moisture/energy
transport is being disrupted by a robust area of upstream convection
along the NE Gulf. Have decreased main onset pops for what was
supposed to be some early morning prefrontal shower development
building in from the SW but that may still be delayed even more.
CAMs do eventually fill in showers later this morning and there
should be plenty of forcing with the high amplitude trough swinging
our way. This afternoon will be quite interesting as a dry slot
rotates into the area ahead of the negatively tilting trough and
strong 70-80 kt 500mb jet. The big question will be how much we can
destabilize during this period and if the dry slot is able to
scatter out a persistent stratus deck. Damaging wind and tornadic
threats would become more of concern if there is attainable CAPE
present since there will be impressive low level SRH and both low
and deep layer speed shear. Some hi res solutions pick up on a
possible line of convection developing across the area where we
could have embedded supercells by late afternoon into evening. The
HRRR nueral network probs of severe hazard are also indicating the
greater chances in about the 22-02z period.

Hydro-wise there does not appear to be much of a flooding threat as
any convection would be quite progressive and latest QPF is
generally near 1 inch and possibly 2 inches along some of the ridge
lines, which shouldn`t pose much of a problem against the flash
flood guidance. Of course expect strong gradient south to SW winds
today, then shifting west tonight. Most of the magnitudes should be
a bit below advisory criteria, though some higher expected gusts in
western Greenbrier still looks supportive of the Wind Advisory out
running into this evening.

Forecast confidence is medium.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty showers and a few thunderstorms
Friday, and windy conditions Friday night.

2) Dry but breezy conditions over the weekend.

Upper trough is forecast to pass overhead Friday resulting in
unstable conditions. This will promote formation of scattered
to numerous showers and widely scattered thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon. Model CAPE of 200-500 J/KG is
forecast and with the freezing level lowering, would anticipate
convection to contain small hail or graupel. Wind fields
gradually increase through the day so expect some healthy wind
gusts with any shower activity that forms during the day.

By Friday night, pressure gradient over the mountains increases
further with models showing 50 to 60 kt 850mb cross barrier
winds. This will likely push us above wind advisory thresholds
along the Blue Ridge and Highlands where surface gusts likely to
test 40-50 mph range. MOS guidance for Roanoke suggests the
valleys will also be quite windy with sustained speeds of 20 to
30 mph to go along with gusts up to 45 mph.

Scattered showers will continue across the mountains Friday
night. Cold air advection will result in falling surface
temperatures with opportunity for some mixed precip in the form
of snow for western Greenbrier, and rain/graupel showers
elsewhere. Do expect the activity to gradually wane with time,
with little or no shower activity anticipated past dawn
Saturday.

The weekend as a whole, looks dry, especially Saturday
afternoon. Model soundings are quite dry aloft, so with a little
mixing should see the humidity take a nose dive Saturday
afternoon with foothills and piedmont dipping into the 15 to 20%
range. In spite of the dryness, wet ground from recent rainfall
should mitigate fire weather concerns, although do expect
breezy conditions through the day Saturday which will expedite
the drying process.

Sunday will also be breezy, but not quite as dry. Clouds are
expected to increase ahead of a front to our north, but little
or no threat of precip is forecast, the system appearing
moisture starved. Of greater interest will be an upper level ridge
of high pressure which will begin building over the southeast
CONUS, a feature that will become semi-permanent for the
upcoming week and promoting a warming pattern. Southwest winds
on Sunday will bring warmer air to the region, temperatures
rebounding 10 to 15 degrees warmer as compared to Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal temperatures next week.

2) Rain threat appears minimal but can`t rule out an isolated
late afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

Model guidance suggests next week is going to be an
exceptionally warm week. Mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S.
is expected to bring above normal temperatures, by as much as 15
degrees above normal. Daytime highs in the 80s are forecast for
the foothills and piedmont with 70s in the mountains. Overnight
lows are expected to be well above freezing with lows only in
the 50s to lower 60s. This will most certainly result in a
pollen bloom that will make a non-allergic sneeze.

The week as a whole looks dry. That said there will be
opportunity, albeit small, for a rumble of thunder. The
abundant warmth combined with increasing dewpoints will favor
some isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity,
but not enough to entertain in the forecast attm. Think a
feature to watch, which may act as a lifting mechanism will be a
weak front that drops south out of the Great Lakes late Sunday
and becomes nearly stationary just to our north. Any moisture
that pools along this boundary may be enough to fuel a few
rogue showers/storms...especially along and north of I-64.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Most cigs this morning look to be in the IFR/MVFR range and
shower development may hold off until after 12-15z then stick
around for much of the day. Cigs may struggle to improve and
possibly stick around MVFR later today. There is a chance for
TSRA development as the strong frontal system pushes across by
late afternoon into evening so have a PROB30 group to include
with VRB gusts. Winds otherwise should be mainly SE to south
10-14 kts gusting 20-25 kts that shift more west later tonight
into Friday.

Forecast confidence is average.

OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday into Saturday, expected gusty northwest winds on the
backside of the exiting system. Upslope showers expected for
parts of Southeast West Virginia. Most areas will trend to VFR
except for the upslope areas.

By Friday night into Sunday, VFR conditions are expected for
all locations along with weakening winds.

By Monday, a weak system may bring a return of some showers and
patchy sub-VFR conditions to Southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AS/AB