375
FXUS64 KTSA 150216
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
916 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Mostly clear skies and calm conditions persist this evening across
the region. The going forecast for tonight remains in good shape,
with mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for most
locations. The low chance for PoPs mainly west of Highway 75 will
be maintained late tonight/Sunday morning within a narrow
deformation zone axis between the remnant low of Francine and the
impinging ridge axis to our west. Otherwise, tranquil weather will
dominate the night.

Bowlan

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight thru Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The upper pattern looks pretty similar to yesterday, with some
subtle movement of the prominent features. The surface reflection
of the remnants of Francine is gone, but the low pressure aloft is
clearly evident on satellite spinning over the lower Mississippi
Valley. The system is still sandwiched between ridging over the
Great Lakes and Northeast and low-amplitude ridging to its west.
The northern fringe of a stream of high cloudiness from TS Ileana
is sliding across far southern OK.

A band of elevated storms did indeed form early this morning along
the NW flow mid-level deformation zone between the low/remnants
of Francine to our east and the ridge to our west. Some spots
across central OK had radar estimates greater than 2.5 inches.
With a similar setup tonight, went with a similar theme to last
night and the previous forecast in keeping some low mentionable
PoPs west of highway 75 for late tonight into Sunday morning.

The remnant moisture from Francine will still be lurking to our
east, and models today suggest that a lobe of vorticity/moisture
will wrap around the low`s north side across northern AR Sunday
and Monday. The NBM and CONSRaw both had some slight chance to
chance PoPs on the eastern fringes of the forecast area, and have
left those pretty much intact.

High and low temps will be slightly above average for this time of
year, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 cooler east warmer
west. Lows will be in the 60s.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The same general blocking pattern will remain in place going into
next week, with some eastward shift to the features. By Tuesday,
the remnant low/moisture from Francine will move away and
gradually dissipate, while ridging slides over the lower Plains
ahead of deep troughing over the West. Models indicate that a
piece of energy will eject northeast out of the parent trough
toward the central/northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Storm activity that fires up in association with this system could
impact portions of northeast Oklahoma, with low chances spreading
across the remainder of the region by Wednesday afternoon. Ridging
aloft will largely be in control Thursday into Friday.

Ensemble cluster analysis indicates there is enough consensus to
start raising PoPs toward the end of the week. The western CONUS
trough is expected to make enough eastward progress to insert
rain/storm chances Friday night into Saturday.

Temps will remain above normal thru the period, eventually
climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows in the 60s and
low 70s. Some cooling is expected at the very tail end of this
forecast with a front and increased rain/storm chances.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue at TAF sites until around 09Z when
stratocu deck develops within moist airmass across western AR.
Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR from KFYV to KROG with a low
chance of dropping below 2k ft AGL around sunrise. Kept KFSM more
optimistic further from the terrain influence. Low (<15%) chance
of convection impacting northeast OK terminals between 13Z and 17Z
along with marginal VFR ceilings. Winds will remain light,
generally at or below 10 kt at all sites through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  89  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   68  85  69  84 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   66  88  66  88 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   63  90  64  89 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   63  83  62  82 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   65  80  63  81 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   65  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   64  87  65  85 /   0   0   0  10
F10   66  87  65  87 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   67  88  67  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24