586
FXUS64 KTSA 261708
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Last lingering portion of morning MCS is across extreme SE OK with
stable overturned airmass northward across the remainder of the
forecast area. Low chance of the remnant outflow boundary
sparking storms late this afternoon near the western periphery of
the forecast area should the boundary mix eastward. Otherwise dry
weather is largely expected for the remainder of the afternoon. A
welcome break from the heat has resulted from the early days rains
the amount of heat and/or humidity recovery is questionable.
Initial counties across far E OK / western AR have been removed
from the afternoon heat advisory and additional removal will be
dependent on afternoon trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Any ongoing precip will decay or move south of the area this evening
with quiet weather overnight. Northeast sfc winds fill in this
evening and overnight behind today`s storms, bringing drier and
slightly cooler air into the region for Thursday. This should hold
max heat indices in check... generally in the upper 90s/ lower 100s.
The break from the heat will be short-lived however as upper
ridging expands back over the area Friday/ Saturday with
additional heat headlines looking probable.

Another front tries to push into the region later Saturday into
Sunday with a chance of showers and storms returning mainly to NE OK
& NW AR. This may provide another short-lived break from the heat on
Sunday but dangerous heat is forecast to return next week as
positive height anomalies return yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the
forecast period as morning MCS has stabilized the local region.
Light winds and recent rainfall may allow for patchy fog overnight
but enough uncertainty remains to allow later forecasts to adjust
as needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  74  95  79 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   92  76  95  75 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   95  74  95  77 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   93  69  93  76 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   88  68  92  72 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   87  68  90  69 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   91  73  92  76 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   86  68  91  75 /  10   0  10  10
F10   96  72  92  76 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   96  74  92  74 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>056-
     059>061-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07