368
FXUS64 KTSA 290529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Thunderstorms were ongoing across Eastern Kansas in response to a
surface boundary lifting northwestward and interacting with the
frontal boundary slowly moving southward. Through the evening
hours these storms are forecast to remain north of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. However...there is potential that
an outflow boundary from the convection could push southward into
the CWA late tonight and create a focus for a few storms to
develop in Northeast Oklahoma. At this time the greater potential
for precip looks to be for locations near the Oklahoma Kansas
border...and will continue with current PoP configuration for
tonight. Instability should weaken this evening and set up closer
to the frontal boundary stretched across Kansas overnight. In
response...not anticipating severe weather tonight.

South of the frontal boundary...southerly low level flow combined
with upper 60s/70+ deg dewpoints and scattered cloud cover over
the CWA should aid in low temps again tonight to be
near/slightly warmer compared to this morning. Current forecast
lows in the mid 70s to around 80 deg remain on track. Thus...for
the evening update have added minor tweaks to hourly temp/dewpoint
trends...while the rest of the forecast looks to be in good shape
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Corridor of elevated convection is likely to be ongoing across
portions of NE OK / far NW AR tomorrow morning with skies then
clearing into the afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will then
prevail area wide. Recent rainfall footprint along with any
moisture pooling along slow moving boundary into NE OK late in the
day will both act to focus persistent high dewpoints through much
of E OK and result in dangerous afternoon heat index values.
Majority of guidance favors isolated to scattered storms
developing by late afternoon along the boundary which is likely to
be in or near NE OK and possibly far NW AR. Ample instability and
steep low level lapse rates will support locally damaging wind
potential with the strongest storms.

The boundary should be pushed more southward by the evening /
overnight storms with some heat relief possible on Sunday.
Guidance varies considerably on extent of additional precip along
and north of the boundary into the day Sunday. Forecast will
remain conservative on precip coverage and also side toward the
warmer temp scenario for Sunday afternoon.

Upper ridge will become more centered over the local forecast area
Monday into Tuesday with decreasing rain chances and increasing
temperatues. A return of heat headlines are likely for early next
week. By mid to late next week there is a chance a weak cold front
will move near or into the region and bring the next chance of
precip and possibly slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few WAA showers will be possible at KBVO overnight, but no
significant impact expected. South winds will continue during the
day Saturday ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into
far NE OK by late afternoon/early evening. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
are forecast to develop across portions of NE OK Saturday evening
near boundary and PROB30 groups were added between 00-06Z. VFR
conditions are forecast outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  10
FSM   99  79  97  75 /  10  20  50  10
MLC   98  77  96  75 /   0  10  30  10
BVO   98  70  91  71 /  20  40  30  10
FYV   98  72  92  70 /  20  30  50  10
BYV   98  72  90  69 /  20  30  50  10
MKO   98  75  93  75 /  20  20  30  10
MIO   95  72  88  72 /  20  40  40  10
F10   97  74  93  75 /  10  20  30  10
HHW   95  77  96  75 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-058-063-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12