735
FXUS65 KVEF 142204
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
304 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Ridging over northwestern Mexico will allow temperatures
in the Desert Southwest to remain around 10 degrees above seasonal
averages through Saturday. Late-weekend into early next week, expect
breezy conditions and cooling temperatures as broad troughing sets
up over the western CONUS.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Temperatures today will range from 8 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages as a weak closed low pushes eastward out of our forecast
area and ridging builds over the Desert Southwest from northwestern
Mexico. Temperatures will increase a few additional degrees
Saturday, resulting in widespread `Moderate` HeatRisk values and
isolated pockets of `Major` HeatRisk values in desert valleys.
Holding off on issuing any heat-related products, as this level of
heat will be isolated to one day, this level of heat is not the
first of the season, and breezy southwest winds will help the
ambient air feel cooler. Wind gust speeds will range from 25 to 35
mph across the forecast area, with the higher end of that range
expected in western San Bernardino County and in the higher terrain.

Wind returns on Sunday as broad troughing sets up across the western
CONUS. Gust speeds will be similar to Saturday, but to a larger
spatial extent, with gusts between 30 and 35 mph expected across
Mohave County as well. This level of wind coupled with very dry
conditions will increase risk of fire danger in Mohave County. As
such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11am to 8pm PDT / MST on
Sunday. More details found in the FIRE WEATHER section below. In
addition to breezy conditions, the aforementioned troughing will
drop temperatures 4-6 degrees areawide, which will bring HeatRisk
values down to `Minor` in most areas and `Moderate` in the desert
valleys including the Colorado River Valley, Moapa Valley, and Death
Valley.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Friday.

Temperatures will continue to decrease Monday and Tuesday thanks to
height falls across the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will bottom
out on Tuesday as the trough axis pushes through the forecast area,
resulting in highs 2-4 degrees below seasonal averages. Little-to-no
moisture associated with this trough, so expect persistent clear
skies and dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will rebound
back to well-above-average as the remainder of the week progresses.
HeatRisk will increase back to `Major` for desert valleys heading
into next weekend.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...East to southeast winds (130-160) with
speeds less than 8 knots can be expected through 00Z before turning
to the west-southwest and increasing to 8-12 knots.  Winds should
back more to the southwest overnight and then become light and
variable around daybreak tomorrow.  Southwest winds with gusts of 20-
25 knots are expected to develop Saturday afternoon.  VFR conditions
will prevail through the weekend.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds of less than 12 knots following typical diurnal
patterns can be expected at southern Nevada and lower Colorado River
Valley TAF sites through tonight.  Occasional wind gusts of 20-25
knots can be expected at KBIH through sunset, and wind gusts to 25
knots become likely after sunset at KDAG.  Most sites will see winds
increase out of the southwest by Saturday afternoon, with gusts to
25 knots possible. VFR conditions will prevail across the region
through the weekend.
&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Single-digit afternoon relative humidity values
expected for the entire forecast area through the weekend and start
of next week with poor overnight recoveries. Gusty southwest winds
will pick up on Saturday and Sunday with sustained winds between 15
and 25 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph. Strongest winds on Saturday will
be in western San Bernardino County, extending to include Mohave
County on Sunday. Red Flag Warning in effect for Mohave County
including the Colorado River Valley on Sunday between 11am and 8pm.
Breezy conditions persist on Monday before decreasing for the
remainder of the week.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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