Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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875
FXUS65 KVEF 141723
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
923 AM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Pleasant weather will continue on today with seasonal
temperatures, light winds but limited sunshine as a system
passing by to the north brings an increase in clouds. Expect quiet
weather over the weekend with light winds, above normal
temperatures and periods of high clouds. A weather system passing
through the area early next week could bring showers to the Sierra
and southern Great Basin on Monday and possibly drop temperatures
several degrees both Monday and Tuesday. Strong high pressure
builds in across the area mid to late next week which could
translate into much warmer conditions.
&&

.UPDATE...Satellite imagery shows an abundance of clouds covering
most of the forecast area this morning and this will be the case
through much of the day. Although the area is under a ridge of high
pressure, the heavily filtered sunshine will limit daytime heating
and keep temperatures seasonal. Despite the coolness of late autumn
temperatures, light winds will make for a pleasant and uneventful
weather day today.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...339 AM PST...

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
The ridge currently overhead will continue to shift eastward today
as a trough off the Pacific NW coast begins to dig into the western
CONUS bringing southwest flow. The main impacts with this system
will be increasing cloud cover across the region today. With
increased cloud cover, temperatures will be near seasonal normals.

Mostly zonal flow is expected through much of Saturday before
switching to southwest flow ahead of an approaching long-wave
trough. Other than some passing high clouds, expect dry and pleasant
weather for Saturday.

By Sunday, the trough will begin to dig into California bringing
some slight chances of precip to the eastern Sierra and northern
Inyo County Sunday night. Stronger mid-level winds will be
present Sunday night as the base of the trough digs into the
Sierra, potentially creating some downslope winds. Some models do
indicate that there could be strong 50+ MPH winds down to the
foothills that could push into the Owens Valley floor. Though,
with limited high resolution model data and some model
discrepancies, will just pass along concerns to the day shift.
Elsewhere, winds will be fairly light and follow typical diurnal
trends during the day and begin to pick up overnight as the trough
digs further into the area.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

A trough will swing across the southwest US the beginning of next
week. Models haven`t changed significantly from previous runs, with
timing looking consistent but differ on how deep the upper level
will become. Moisture will be limited as more models trend towards a
drier airmass. Even with the deeper solution, dont anticipate a
significant event with heavy or widespread precipitation. Didnt make
too many changes with the details of this system at this time.

After the upper level trough exits to the east, dry and quiet
weather is expected to return. Strong high pressure will build into
the area through the rest of the week, bringing light winds and
mostly clear skies to the region. This will be a warm airmass, so
temperatures should quickly climb well above normal after midweek.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light and variable winds following
typical diurnal trends will continue through the rest of today and
tomorrow. Clouds will continue to increase with decreasing CIGs
throughout the afternoon today. Expect SCT to BKN aoa 10 kft
expected through tonight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light and diurnal winds will continue across most TAF
sites through the rest of today. Clouds will continue to increase
with decreasing CIGs throughout the afternoon today. Expect SCT to
BKN aoa 10 kft expected through tonight.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Salmen

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KRYSTON
LONG TERM...WOLF

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