Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 190824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
124 AM PDT Thu May 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...An incoming system will bring gusty south to west
winds and fire weather concerns to the area through tonight. Winds
stay elevated Friday morning but will gradually diminish throughout
the day with temperatures significantly cooler Friday and Saturday.
More seasonal temperatures Sunday and Monday. A ridge is expected to
build over the region later next week which will allow for the
return of above average temperatures.

.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.

Trough initialized by 00Z suite of models over the Gulf of
Alaska/western Canada still on schedule to carve out a broad trough
across the Intermountain West Friday. As we`ve been advertising
gusty winds today and tomorrow will be the primary impact.
Prefrontal south to west winds scheduled to increase late morning;
strengthen through the afternoon and into tonight. Hi-res guidance
still supports area of strong west winds developing across the
western Mojave Desert late this afternoon, lasting through tonight.
Second area of concern would be along the eastern Sierra slopes of
Inyo County were cross sections show 40-50 mph downslope winds
materializing late this afternoon and potentially pushing east
across Highway 395 from 3 pm to midnight. No change to our existing
wind advisories.

Associated cold front will slice through south central
Nevada/northern Inyo County tonight before surging south through the
remainder of the Mojave Desert Friday. Post-front north winds likely
will stay gusty into Friday morning before gradually diminishing
during the afternoon. Significant cooling behind the front Friday,
NBM guidance indicates high temperatures some 20-25 degrees cooler
for Bishop east to Caliente. For Las Vegas, Death Valley, Barstow,
Kingman, and Lake Havasu City the amount of cooling will range
between 5-20 degrees.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

Dry conditions will persist into the long term period with the main
weather uncertainty regarding just how quickly temperatures warm
through next week. Latest guidance is holding back a little more
troughing across the southwest into Monday, which results in a
slower climb back above normal than previously advertised. However,
most of the cluster guidance is in good agreement of a more dominant
ridging pattern taking hold by midweek, with temperatures returning
to well above normal territory. If we don`t hit 100 degrees in Las
Vegas on Thursday (5/19), the next best chance looks to arrive by
next Tuesday, with similar temperatures to follow on Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread critical fire weather conditions
will occur across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona today. South
to west winds will increase late morning, peak through the afternoon
into the evening. Minimum humidity values will range from 5-15
percent. Humidity values recover to 15-25 percent overnight as a
cold front slides through southern Nevada. Gusty north winds will
continue into Friday morning before gradually diminishing through
the afternoon.

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Generally, light winds following
typical diurnal trends, will remain through much of Thursday
morning. Gusty southwest winds with gusts around 25 knots will reach
KLAS by 19-20Z this afternoon remaining through much of tonight. A
cold front will move through southern NV overnight tonight,
potentially shifting the winds to the north early morning Friday.
Low confidence on the exact timing and direction of the northerly
wind shift, which will depend on the strength of the frontal winds.
Even so, the more likely scenario is southwest winds decrease at
KLAS between 08-12Z and begin shifting northwest and north, with
northeasterly winds and gusts around 20 knots arriving between 13-
15Z Friday morning. Breezy northeast winds will likely remain
through Friday afternoon. Some FEW to SCT aoa 25 Kft will be
possible through the forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds will give way late Thursday morning to
gusty west to southwest winds across the region. West to southwest
winds around 15-25 knots and gusts up to 25-35 knots will be
possible at all terminals, peaking between 22-02Z this afternoon.
Winds will remain elevated tonight before briefly decreasing ahead
of a cold front which will bring breezy northerly winds Friday
morning-afternoon. Some FEW to SCT aoa 25 Kft will be possible
through the forecast period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating



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