-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
892
FXUS61 KAKQ 111837
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough moves through the area today, bringing isolated
to scattered showers and storms, mainly near the coast. High pressure
settles across the region on Wednesday, then pushes off the coast
Thursday and Friday, bringing hot conditions to the local area by
the end of the week. A cold front pushes through Friday night, with
slightly cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key message:

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this
  afternoon closer to the coast. An isolated strong storm is
  also possible.

The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level low centered
over the East Coast. Pleasant this afternoon with temps as of
145 PM in the 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The primary feature of interest today will be a shortwave
pivoting ESE through this afternoon across the local area. At
the sfc, there will be a lingering trough extending N from low
pressure centered off the SE US coast. This will lead to some
enhanced sfc/low level convergence and seabreeze boundaries
closer to the coast. SPC has maintained a Marginal SVR risk
across far SE VA and NE NC for wind/hail. The limiting factor
is relatively low moisture (CAPE values have trended lower over
the past 24 hours). Additionally, the steeper mid level lapse
rates of 6.5C or greater are forecast to stay farther north
closer to the core of the upper low, perhaps bushing the eastern
shore this aftn, while remaining weaker in the ~5.5C range
where the better moisture and highest PoPs reside in the SE. The
NW flow aloft will provide some shear, so if anything becomes
organized enough, at least some isolated stronger downbursts or
small to marginally severe hail will be possible. However, CAMs
have trended weaker and with less coverage over the past few
runs. The highest chance for showers and storms remains across
far SE VA and NE NC this afternoon (with high chc to likely
PoPs). It should be noted that locations at the immediate coast
will have a lower threat than areas about 10-30 miles inland
from the coast. Mainly dry farther inland today. Highs range
from the upper 70s near the immediate coast to the lower 80s
inland.

Any showers should end rather quickly this evening, then
becoming mostly clear with lows in the 50s well inland to the
low-mid 60s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday as high pressure
  settles across the area.

The upper trough will be well off to the NE of the local area on
Wed, as an upper level ridge centered across the desert SW
slowly builds eastward. The flow aloft will be from the NW with
light flow in the low levels as a broad area of sfc high
pressure settles over the region, shifting off the coast in the
aftn. Dry with mostly sunny skies in the morning becoming partly
cloudy with SCT Cu in the aftn. Seasonable highs for Wed
ranging from the mid 80s inland to near 80F at the coast, with
dew pts in the 50s to around 60F keeping conditions rather
pleasant. Mostly clear and a little warmer Wed night with lows
primarily ranging through the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with
  highs reaching the low-mid 90s by Friday.

- Cooler but still a little above average for the weekend.
  Likely turning hot next week.


An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds
east late in the week as an upper trough weakens across eastern
Canada. The overall trend is for the upper trough across eastern
Canada to be a little stronger and as such, the core of the
upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states. At
the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the east
coast, gradually sliding offshore. Temperatures will increase
into the mid/upper 80s to around 90F Thursday, with Friday
likely the hottest day of the period with deep mixing and 850 mb
temperatures rising to 18-19C. Highs Friday looks to average
into the mid 90s well inland across central VA/metro RIC, with
upper 80s to lower 90s closer to the coast. However, given the
continental origin of this airmass, dew pts continue to be
fairly low, mixing into the low-mid 60s (or possibly even the
upper 50s), which will act to mitigate the heat index from being
much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew pts
will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure
gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air
temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories
look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid-
upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri
afternoon. A cold front moves through Fri night into Sat, with a
20-30% chc for tstms Friday night (mainly across the NE). For
the weekend, temps cool back closer to normal with highs in the
mid/upper 80s to around 90F inland, to the lower 80s near the
coast. An isolated shower/tstms possible over NE NC Sat aftn but
most places look to stay dry. Lows look to be warmest Thu and
Fri nights as temps likely won`t drop below 70F in urban
locations, with mid to upper 60s over rural interior sections.
Lows by Sat night and Sun night will be a bit cooler, with
60-65F inland and upper 60s at the coast. Expect temperatures to
warm back into the 90s for much of the area on Monday. Beyond
that, particularly by midweek (which is beyond the 7-day
forecast period), shows the potential for the upper level ridge
to become centered over the ern CONUS, though with a lot of
model disagreement. The 00Z/11 ECMWF suggests an extended hot
period while the GFS/Canadian are much weaker and transient with
the ridge. Either way, temperatures look to be above normal
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions continue through the 18z taf period. SCT-BKN CU
(3500-5000 ft CIGs) linger this afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing mainly across NE NC. Brief
gusty winds and hail as well as IFR VIS due to heavy rain remain
possible in the strongest storms (though coverage of stronger
storms is expected to be isolated at best). Mainly isolated
showers and storms are possible across SE VA and the MD Eastern
Shore as well. Given low coverage of convection, have VCTS at
ECG/SBY and VCSH at ORF (due to storms likely remaining farther
SW). Any showers or storms end this evening with clearing skies
and calm winds. However, models have begun showing the potential
for some patchy fog across the Eastern Shore tonight (including
SBY) with MVFR/IFR VIS possible between 6-12z Wed. A combination
of mid and high level clouds move in from W to E late tonight
into Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with dry weather tonight
through Fri. However, cannot completely rule out a brief, light
shower or sprinkle Wed afternoon near RIC. A cold front crosses
the area Fri evening into Fri night with at least isolated
showers or storms possible (best chance from the Northern Neck
to the Eastern Shore). Flight restrictions are possible in any
storms. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Winds generally 15 kt or less until Thursday when S-SE winds
  increase ahead of a cold front. A cold front will push south
  across all waters early Saturday morning with SCA conditions
  possible Saturday.

N to NE winds have persisted around 10 to 15 kt with some
higher gusts from earlier this morning into the afternoon as
high pressure with drier air has been pushing south. Winds will
relax later this evening but remain NE to E around 10-12 kt.
For Wed winds become SE and with the high pushing offshore to
our north the pressure gradient will tighten over the lower Bay
and coastal waters. This should increase the SE wind to 10 to 15
kt by Wed afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. These SE
winds persist into early evening before decreasing Wed night as
the gradient relaxes.

SE winds should increase again Thu to 15 kt from late morning
into the afternoon but remain below SCA conditions though
marginal SCA conditions are possible Thursday evening into
Friday ahead of cold front.

There is a better chance of SCA conditions early Sat morning
until mid afternoon Sat as N winds increase behind a cold front.
The surge of cooler and drier air should push winds to 15 to 20
kt with some higher gusts. These events have tended to
overperform and guidance has increased the wind some for
Saturday morning into early afternoon.

Waves and seas will average 1-2 ft for most of this week until
the front pushes south early Saturday. At this time, it appears
seas will stay below 5 ft through the forecast period, though
the Bay will likely build to 3 ft Saturday.

Despite winds turning more onshore this afternoon beach cams
suggest waves around 2 ft with the low rip current risk. A low
risk should persist into Wed. Increasing SE winds Thu may
increase the risk later this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JAO