-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
490
FXUS61 KBGM 260725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms pass through overnight
as temperatures remain fairly mild. Conditions may favor scattered
strong thunderstorms over the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Quiet conditions return for the later half of the week with
more seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
155 AM Update...

Thus far the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
having a hard time developing in our forecast area; however over
the next several hours we are still expecting some scattered
showers to develop and cannot completely rule out a
thunderstorm as a warm frontal boundary with increasing low
level moisture pushes east. Rest of the near term forecast
remains on track at this time.

945 PM Update...

Not much change to the forecast this period, just watching
trends.

615 PM Update...

With a line of showers moving along the I-90 corridor, chances
of precipitation have been increased ahead of it through Oneida
county. Chances of precipitation were also increased to at least
15% for CNY as there is a weak elevated mixed layer moving
through with 700 mb to 500 mb lapse rates becoming around 7 to
7.5C a km. Elevated CAPE is looking to be near or over 1000
J/kg as we get warm, moist flow advecting in at 850 mb. There is
a lack of a trigger to get that moist later lifted to the
unstable layer but given that there is some warm air advection
there is at least will be some broad, weak lift that could lead
to a storm or two. If a storm can develop there could be some
hail but wind looks minimal with a pretty stable boundary layer.

320 PM Update...

While some of the CAMs do bring a line of passing showers this
evening, moisture looks to be limited. Chances will be better for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as an
upper-level trough moves through the region. Instability and shear
will be weak, so no severe storms are expected tonight. Temperatures
will remain mild night, only falling into the 60s.

Wednesday will start out quiet as dry air will be in place. Under
south-southwesterly flow, strong warm air advection will help push
temperatures into the 80s and even the low 90s in some lower
elevations in NEPA. Instability will increase across NEPA and
Catskills by early afternoon but there will not be anything around
to take advantage of it. As the day progresses, instability greatly
increases south of the region while remaining steady or even
decreasing during the afternoon. Still, MLCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg will be possible across the Wyoming Valley. Bulk shear in the 0-
6km layer will be 30 to 40 kts. Lapse rates in the lower levels will
be fairly steep, but that will not be the case in the mid-levels.
Based on how models look now, conditions do look more marginal than
previous runs and we have seen SPC shift south with their outlooks.
There is still a slight risk for severe weather across most of NEPA
and the Catskills, this risk could continue to shift south if models
continue to keep the best conditions south. Short-range guidance is
a bit delayed with bringing precipitation in ahead of a cold front
and very few show much in the way for convective showers. Still,
with PWATs up to 1.75 inches, heavier showers may be possible. There
is some uncertainty on how conditions will play out tomorrow based
on the location of a warm front, but a slight shift north or south
could change what the region sees.

Showers will continue into the late evening hours. Lingering
thunderstorms may also be possible. The majority of the showers will
be through the region prior sunrise Thursday morning. Cooler air
will filter in behind the passing showers, allowing temps to drop
into the mid 50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
330 AM Update...

Quiet period is expected as high pressure remains in control with
persisting dry conditions. Clear skies and calm winds continue into
the overnight hours making it a favorable night for radiational
cooling. Lows will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s across
the region. Recent rainfall will also lead to favorable
conditions for valley fog development, so have added some
patchy fog through the overnight hours. Similar pattern
continues Friday with high pressure centered over our region.
Mostly sunny skies are expected with temperatures climbing into
the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will begin to move in Friday
evening as the next system approaches. Lows will return to
normal with temperatures ranging in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
330 AM Update...

Low pressure system tracks east and into our region on Saturday
along with a warm front producing showers and thunderstorms. Deep SW
return flow advects warm air and moisture into our region with PWAT
values 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Model soundings also
show a deep warm cloud layer up to 13K feet suggesting heavy
downpours and localized flash flooding is possible. Cold front from
this system will push through on Sunday with more showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance shows an additional wave dipping
into our region on Monday, which could increase pops, but
decided to stick with the NBM this far out. Otherwise upper
level ridge moves into the region on Tuesday with drier
conditions returning. Another system approaches our area by
Wednesday with more possible showers.

Temperatures during this period fluctuate with highs mostly ranging
in the mid 70s to upper 80s and lows in the 60s. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler on Monday behind the cold front with
highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM Update

VFR conditions are expected at all of our taf sites except RME,
through about 22z today. RME will see some sct to bkn MVFR cloud
bases/CIGs between about 8-12z this morning along the warm
frontal boundary. The rest of the area will see mid level (VFR)
clouds lift to mainly high clouds through the day. It won`t be
until the evening hours (22z Weds to 02z Thurs) that rain and
thunderstorms are forecast to quickly overspread the area.

Rain and embedded thunderstorms, with PROB30 groups added for
t`storms at ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP are in the forecast starting
between 22z Wednesday and 02z Thursday, with rain lingering a
few hours later into the overnight. As these showers and storms
move across the area it will drop to MVFR Fuel Alternate and
even occasional IFR restrictions possible due to low CIGS and
VIS. The highest probability for IFR or lower restrictions will
be at AVP and BGM between about 02-06z early Thursday. Left the
mention of thunderstorms out of the SYR and RME TAFs, as prob
thunder is much lower (slight chc) up north, with much lower
instability in the model guidance.


Outlook...

Late Wednesday Night...Lingering restrictions, mainly CIGs with
scattered showers and NW flow.

Thursday...Morning CIGs restrictions lingering; becoming mainly
VFR by afternoon.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...KL/MJM