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266
FXUS62 KILM 192000
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonably warm and mainly dry conditions will continue for the
next few days. A warming trend begins late in the week with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Heat
indices may reach the triple digits over the weekend. Onshore
flow will bring more humid conditions by the beginning of next
week with a better chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The area will remain between high pressure to the north and low
pressure to the south. This pattern will bring deep easterly
flow which will keep temps somewhat in check and allow for a few
showers, especially near the coast. Lows tonight should be in
the mid to upper 60s away from the warmer coastal areas with
highs Thursday ranging from the lower to mid 80s near the coast
to around 90 inland, both of which are near to slightly below
normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure offshore will maintain easterly winds Thursday
night into Friday, weakening on Friday. A coastal trough on
Friday may bring a few showers to the immediate coastal areas.
Dry air aloft and poor lapse rates will limit their ability to
maintain organization inland. For now, have kept a chance of
showers on Friday afternoon, higher near the coast and farther
south. Highs in the lower 90s with overnight lows not offering
much relief with lows in the lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Onshore flow continues on Saturday with low level moisture
advection increasing the potential for isolated showers and
storms along the coast. Ridging to our west and subsidence
overhead will allow temperatures to climb into the mid and upper
90s on Saturday. Heat and humidity continue to increase on
Sunday with inland areas possibly reaching 100 degrees. Heat
indices could reach the mid 100s by Sunday afternoon.

A cold front and upper trough approaches the area early next
week. Lifting upper low over southern Canada indicates that
trough will be less robust than models currently indicate. Given
the dry boundary layer and westerly flow, have capped rain
chances around 40% for now. NW flow aloft could provide better
lift for afternoon storms, primarily Monday. Drier aloft on
Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers and storms possible.
Above normal temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High confidence in VFR across SE NC and NE SC through 18Z
Thursday, although can`t completely rule out brief restrictions
due to MVFR cigs and passing showers, especially closer to the
coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR. Gusty onshore winds to around 20 kt are
also expected, mainly near the coast during the daytime
periods.

Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR prevailing outside
of showers/storms and morning low clouds/fog (especially
starting Saturday).
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Thursday... The pressure gradient will remain slightly
enhanced as the area remains between high pressure to the north
and low pressure to the south. Conditions will be close to Small
Craft Advisory levels, especially Thursday out near 20 nm, but
confidence in occurrence and coverage wasn`t high enough to
raise a headline yet.

Thursday Night through Monday Night... Onshore flow and easterly
swell will continue Thursday night into Friday. Swell between
3-5 feet at 8-9 seconds will weaken late Friday as high pressure
offshore weakens and a trough develops well south of the area.
Bermuda high pressure regains control of the region this
weekend. Seas 2 to 3 feet for the upcoming weekend with a
combination of weakening E swell and S wind chop. Overnight
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
coastal waters each night.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly swell and upcoming
full moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east
and southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) the
end of the week. A high risk of rip currents is in effect today
for Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown County beaches, as well
as Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, with high rip risk
potentially continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches
of Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong
east to west longshore currents these days due to easterly
swell and winds versus strong rip currents. The area in between
the two, from north of Myrtle Beach to Ocean Isle Beach, will
have a combination of moderate rip current risk and moderate to
strong NE to SW longshore current the next couple of days.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM