Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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684 FXUS62 KILM 161929 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 329 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure just to our north should provide dry weather and easterly winds for the first half of the week. A tropical disturbance expected to remain to our south could spread a few showers across the Carolinas Thursday or Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The subtropical ridge aloft is centered almost directly overhead and should remain across eastern North Carolina on Monday. Beneath this dome of sinking, warm air aloft, yesterday`s cold front is dissipating across southern South Carolina and probably will not be a trackable feature much longer. 1025 mb surface high pressure centered across coastal New England will expand southward along the East Coast and toward the Carolinas tomorrow with easterly low level winds advecting a seasonable airmass onshore. Convective showers across eastern South Carolina this afternoon have remained shallow, constrained by the subsidence inversion and dry air in the ridge aloft. These showers should dissipate by sunset with dry weather expected tonight into Monday. Tonight`s lows are expected to fall into the upper 60s to near 70, except warmer along beaches where winds off the 80-degree ocean water won`t cool much. With less cumulus around on Monday, forecast highs are similar to today with a large coast-to- inland gradient expected: low-mid 80s on the beaches to lower 90s inland.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Looking unseasonably dry for mid-June through the short term forecast period. An upper ridge centered near the NC-VA border travels northward into the DelMarVa region by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure offshore well to the northeast brings in consistent ESE flow through the low- and mid-levels. Despite that onshore flow, upper air remains remarkably dry, with precipitable water values lingering near an inch, which is roughly half an inch below normal for this time of year. As a result, no rain in the forecast. Probably will have a few cumulus clouds at 4000-5000ft, but that`s about it. Highs Tuesday in the lower 90s inland, mid 80s at the coast. Lows each night in the mid 60s inland, near 70 at the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Simply copy the short term forecast and paste it for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Things get a bit more interesting by Thursday. For one, a trough way up in Canada helps push the aforementioned ridge southward back towards the Carolinas, eventually making its way back into the Deep South by the weekend. The more important feature is a trough that is set to develop northeast of the Bahamas by midweek, and push westward into Florida by Thursday. It`s unclear exactly where in Florida this thing lands, but regardless, it carries a large swath of moisture with it. Clouds and rain chances on the rise by Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, more intense heat settles in, and temperatures escalate into the mid-to-upper 90s inland, lower 90s at the coast. Dewpoints also hit the mid 70s, and precipitable water skyrockets to near 2 inches. In other words, hot and muggy conditions with daily shower and thunderstorm chances return by next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A dissipating front extends SE-NW across South Carolina. Onshore winds behind this system are bringing in Atlantic moisture which is leading to extensive cumulus clouds and some scattered showers. VFR conditions are expected to prevail except in isolated spots under these small convective cores, none of which should last long. The KFLO airport stands the best potential to see impacts from showers this afternoon, mainly before 22z. Tonight VFR conditions are expected with two caveats: a low potential for MVFR stratocumulus ceilings along the coast affecting KMYR, KCRE, and KILM; and a low potential for MVFR visibility in ground fog late tonight at the KFLO airport. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Through Monday...Yesterday`s cold front has stalled across southern South Carolina and is dissipating. High pressure centered across coastal New England will expand southward down the East Coast and toward the Carolinas on Monday, maintaining a steady easterly wind 10-15 kt across our coastal waters. Southeasterly swell plus easterly wind waves will combine to produce sea heights around 3 feet, with local 4 foot wave heights within 20 miles of shore near Frying Pan Shoals. Monday Night through Friday...ENE winds take hold all the way through Friday morning, with sustained speeds at 10-15kts and gusts up to 20-22kts. Seas initially at 2-3ft build to 3-4ft Tuesday, and then 3-5ft by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, 6ft waves come into play, where a Small Craft Advisory is possible. This continues to build through Thursday, where even 7ft waves are possible 20nm from shore. Things finally start to subside Thursday night, and by Friday afternoon, 10-15kt winds veer more southeasterly, and seas drop back down to 3-4ft.
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&& .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/IGB