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807
FXUS61 KILN 291402
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass will interact with weak mid level
disturbances today, resulting in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. A cold front will move in from the northwest
tonight, and then through the remainder of the area on Sunday.
The precipitation threat will end with frontal passage. Cooler
and drier air will return for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A very moist airmass is in place across the region this morning
with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. These may even
nudge up a bit more through this afternoon in continued moist
southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. An area of
showers and thunderstorms along a pre-frontal trough is moving
into northwest portions of our area attm. This should continue
to work its way east across mainly the northern portions of our
area through early to mid afternoon.

Temperatures will be a little tricky today as the pcpn and
clouds may keep temps down at least somewhat across northern
portions of our area. However, it does look like southern
potions of our area may see a few more breaks through early to
mid afternoon and this should help push temps up into the lower
90s. With the high dewpoints, this would nudge heat indicies up
close to 100 degrees across parts of our south this afternoon.
This should also allow for a little better instability across
our south through early afternoon so we may begin to see some
additional thunderstorms development southward along the pre-
frontal boundary as we head into this afternoon.

Mid level lapse rates will be fairly weak today but with deep
layer shear in the 30-40 knot range, instability may still be
strong enough to support a few strong to severe storms this
afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat.
High PWs of 2+ inches will also lead to the potential for some
heavy rain and localized flooding.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight, afternoon convection will be making its way
southeast. Our eyes will then turn to a cold front which will
advance into our area from the northwest. Lift with the front
appears weak, and with the larger scale lift remaining across
Canada, coverage of showers and storms should be sparse. Lows
will range from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s
southeast.

On Sunday, the cold front will pass southeast through the
remainder of the region (southern/eastern zones). Once the front
moves by, the pcpn threat will come to an end. Northwest to
northerly flow will begin to advect drier and cooler air
southward. Highs will range from the mid 70s northwest to the
mid 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period starts dry Sunday night through Tuesday with high
pressure settling across the Great Lakes. A slow moving boundary
interacting with a humid and unstable airmass will provide the
focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.
Though chances for widespread severe weather appear to be muted
by relatively weak winds aloft, there may be rounds of heavy
rain from an atmosphere containing 1.5 to 2 inches PWAT.

After below normal highs in the 70s to around 80 on Monday, a
warming trend in the circulation around the high will allow
readings into the 90s by Wednesday. A modest retreat to the mid
and upper 80s is indicated for Thursday and Friday due to
clouds, precip and slight cold advection associated with the
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For today, the region will be enveloped in a moist airmass well
ahead of a cold front pushing southeast into the western Great
Lakes and middle Mississippi River Valley. Various convective
allowing models try to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon as another mid level disturbance
moves east across the area. Timing appears to be in the
afternoon with the northern TAF sites perhaps seeing the better
precipitation coverage. Again, thunderstorms will be capable of
producing MVFR conditions along with at least IFR visibilities.
Southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts in the 15 to 25
knot range can be expected, but should decrease between 22Z and
00Z.

For tonight, aforementioned cold front will move southeast into
the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Will continue
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but coverage should
be sporadic in nature. Models indicate that some MVFR ceilings
may develop in the 06Z and 12Z Sunday time range ahead of the
cold front.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday morning. Thunderstorms
possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman