338
FXUS61 KAKQ 290817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity return for today and Sunday. A cold front
drops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning.
Ahead of it, strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall are
expected. Dry weather is then expected through the middle of
next week with additional heat concerns possible for Independence
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered off the New
England coast, providing dry weather across the area. However,
the sky cover ranged from clear to cloudy, due to the
development of stratus or low SC over portions of the region.
Temps were ranging from the mid 60s to the upper 70s.

Sfc high pressure will shift farther out to sea during today, as
low pressure moves from the nrn Great Lakes ENE into SE Canada
with its trailing cold front pushing into the OH Valley. A weak
warm front will lift north of the area, bringing SE or S flow
and hotter temps. Should be mainly dry today, but may see isolated
showers or a tstm over portions of the region, as weak shortwave
energy passes through. CAMs do show some morning convection along
or just off the coast this morning into this aftn, so have 15-25%
PoPs in the SE. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s
inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 80s to around 90 near the Bay
and along the coast. With dewpoints up into the lower 70s, heat
indices will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Hot and very humid conditions expected on Sunday with
  dangerous heat indices around 105F.

- A cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and
  heavy rain Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

Isolated showers or tstms will be possible across the W and N
tonight into Sun morning, associated with a lee trough. Warm and
humid tonight with lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year, at
least) will approach the area Sun, crossing the region Sun night
through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW flow will allow
hot and very humid conditions to continue. Cloud cover and
potential morning pcpn could hinder high temps, but still
expecting highs in the lower to mid 90s. With dew pts in the
mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices
around 105F are in the forecast. While the potential for morning
convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous storms
will be in the aftn and into the overnight hours. Moderate to
heavy rainfall is expected, esply for ESE portions of the FA,
where PWs will approach 2.5". As such, WPC has placed this
portion of the region in a Marginal ERO. Instability provided by
the heat/humidity along with moderate shear will allow for some
storms to be strong to severe, despite the stronger winds aloft
being to the N. Thus, there is a Slight risk for severe storms
for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk for coastal NE
NC. Pcpn will taper off and end from NW to SE from late Sun
night through Mon morning. Lows Sun night will range from the
mid 60s N, to the lower 70s far SE.

Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering
much drier air into the region during the day. The sky will
become mostly or partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc
high pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure will bring dry weather through mid week.
Relatively cooler temps and much lower dewpoints will bring
brief relief from the heat and humidity. Highs will be in the
low to mid 80s. Warming some on Tuesday with highs in the mid
80s, but onshore flow keeps temps a few degrees cooler at the
coast. Hot weather returns mid week with highs in the low 90s
Wed and mid- upper 90s on the Fourth of July. With dewpoints
creeping back toward 70 on Thursday, there is the potential for
heat indices over 100. Remaining dry through at least Wed with a
chc for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday. .

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure centered off the New England was leading to light
E/ESE flow at area terminals early this morning. As a result,
stratus and lower SC were developing over portions of the
region. Guidance continues to favor low-end MVFR, but cannot
rule out patchy pockets of IFR stratus, esply in/near central
VA (including RIC) until around 12Z this morning. Not expecting
much in the way of VSBY restrictions. A few showers are also
possible at ECG through this morning. For this aftn, mainly dry
conditions expected though a very brief shower or storm is
possible at any terminal. SCT CU again redevelops with a 7-12
kt S or SE wind.

Mainly dry conditions continue into tonight, with just an isolated
threat of a shower or storm. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms are
likely Sun aftn through Sun night, some of which could be strong
to severe. High pressure and drier conditions return for later
Mon morning through Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- A High Rip Risk for eastern shore (VA/MD) beaches today, with
  moderate Rip Risk for SE VA & NE NC. Moderate Rip for all
  beaches Sunday.

- Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy
  onshore/southerly winds today. A brief period of SCA level
  winds is expected in the bay late this afternoon and this
  evening, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect during this
  period.

- A period of SCA conditions is very likely for most of the
  waters on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front.

1024+ mb sfc high pressure just offshore of the Delmarva remains
in control of conditions across the region, with E-SE winds
10-15 kt this morning. Seas are 3-4 ft, with waves 1-2 ft.
Have added a High Rip Risk for this morning for eastern shore
beaches. E-NE swell 3-4 feet and 9 seconds persists this
morning, and with the shore-normal component to wave energy,
poses an elevated threat for rip currents, especially around low
tide between 8-10 this morning. High pressure slides farther
offshore today, allowing the front to the south to lift back
north as a warm front. Resultant low-level flow turns around to
the SSE this afternoon. As the NE swell weakens and SE winds
and E-SE swell becomes more dominant this afternoon, it is
possible that Rip Risk could ease a bit. For now though, High
Rip Risk for northern beaches today, and a Moderate Rip Risk for
SE VA/NE NC beaches. Moderate Rip Risk for all beaches Sunday.

A Small Craft Advisory has also been issued for late this
afternoon into the evening for the Ches Bay, with tightening
pressure gradient allowing SSE winds to increase to ~15-20 kt.
Local wind probs show a 40- 70% chc of sustained 18 kt winds
between 6 PM Sat - 2 AM EDT Sun (highest in the mid/upper bay
with some channeling effects). Winds become SSW and diminish to
10-15 kt after midnight tonight/early Sunday, with winds
remaining SSW through Sunday afternoon.

A decently strong summer cold front looks to approach the area
Sunday before crossing the waters from NW-SE between 2-10 AM
late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Scattered to numerous
tstms are expected Sun aftn into Sun night, which will likely
necessitate a few rounds of SMWs. Damaging winds will be the
main threat, with a few of the storms capable of producing
large hail and W-NW wind gusts to ~50 kt. Sub-SCA winds prevail
outside of any storms from Sun- late Sun evening. However,
there will be decent cool/dry advection following the cold FROPA
Monday morning into early afternoon. N winds to increase to ~20
kt (with frequent gusts around or just above 25 kt). SCA probs
are AOA 80% for most of the marine area late Sun night through
midday Monday and another round of SCAs are likely be needed for
all of the Ches Bay, Lower James, Sound and quite possibly for
the upper rivers/coastal waters.

Seas generally 3-4 ft this weekend with 1-3 ft waves. Seas
could build to 5 ft S of Cape Charles on Monday following the
cold FROPA (with 3-4 ft waves). Sub- SCA waves and seas are
expected from Mon night through the middle of next week, as
light return flow develops, with afternoon sea-breeze
circulations likely prevailing for the mid week period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ERI/MAM