Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
655 FXUS61 KAKQ 271528 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1128 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front slowly crosses southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina through this afternoon, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region tonight into Friday. Heat and humidity return over the weekend with an increased chance of thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1125 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - A few thunderstorms are possible across NE NC this afternoon- early evening. - Drier weather returns tonight. An upper level trough is pushing across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast late this morning, with the trough axis currently over the area. At the surface, the cold front continues to push through the area, and the leading edge of a drier airmass is beginning to enter far nrn portions of the FA. The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC later today and should move to our south tonight. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop along the boundary this afternoon (along with outflow left over from the early morning convection). The highest chc of storms is in NE NC, but the vast majority of the storms will likely remain south of the FA given that the overnight convection moved farther south than expected. with the highest chc across SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to seasonally hot levels ranging from the mid 80s to near 90F. Showers/tstms largely dissipate or move to our south by early this evening, although some isolated activity could linger into the early overnight hours over from the SW Piedmont to NE NC. Otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s N to the lower 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Not as hot and mainly dry Friday. - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity. High pressure builds across New England Friday following the frontal passage. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower 80s along the coast, with mid to upper 80s inland. Surface high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat and increasing humidity return Saturday as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. Highs Saturday return to the upper 80s to lower 90s, with some mid 90s possible in central VA as 850mb temperatures around 20C return with increasing mid-level SW flow. This combined with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in heat indices of 100-105F. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms over the Piedmont in vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front. - A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day. Heat and humidity continue to prevail Sunday as high pressure remains off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow once again increases out of the SW. 850mb temps rise to 20-22C on Sunday. This will support high temps in the mid 90s. Aftn dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating. This is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS guidance, but is below the mid 70s-80F shown by the NBM (which is likely too high especially given how dry it has been the past month). Resultant heat indices are in the 105-109F range for much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are possible on Saturday afternoon (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a cold front drops through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 00z/27 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the area. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Thursday... Showers/tstms are moving off the coast of SE VA as of 11z. Otherwise, mainly VFR with the exception of some patchy MVFR cigs. These showers/tstms are associated with a cold front and this boundary will be slow to push through far SE VA and NE NC this afternoon with a 30-60% chc of redevelopment this aftn (higher chc at ECG and lower at ORF). Brief flight restrictions are possible, mainly in vsby. Otherwise, drier air will arrive from the north with VFR conditions. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday. There is another decent chance for showers/tstms later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure and drier conditions return by Monday. && .MARINE... As of 410 AM EDT Thursday... Early this morning, a cold front with sctd showers and a few tstms was pushing through central portions of the region. Winds were variable 5-15 kt with a few gusts to 20-25 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 2-4 ft. The cold front will slowly drop SSE through srn/SE portions of the region this morning into this aftn, with winds 5-10 kt becoming NNW or NE over most of the waters behind the front. But, winds will remain southerly over the nrn coastal waters. Increasing NE or E winds are expected late tonight through Fri morning, then E and SE winds for Fri aftn into Sat morning, as high pressure slides by to the north then off the srn New England coast. SE then SSW winds at least 10-15 kt are expected for Sat through Sun. Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today. Moderate rip risk on Fri. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JDM/TMG