447
AXNT20 KNHC 061751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 23.6N 92.7W at 06/1800 UTC
or 360 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving WNW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently
21 ft. A turn to the northwest is expected later today, followed
by a turn toward the north-northwest by Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to approach the
Texas coast by late Sunday into Monday morning. Little change in
strength is expected today. However, strengthening is expected to
begin tonight or on Sunday, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast. Large swells
generated by Beryl are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much
of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to
eastern Cuba, between 74W and 80W. Scattered moderate convection
is also in the SW Caribbean from 10N to 14N west of 81W, including
coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are in the eastern Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from
07N40W to 07N49W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 11N between 14W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed in the NE Gulf waters.
Outside of Beryl, 3-5 ft seas and gentle winds prevail in the
eastern waters and along the central Gulf coast. Winds and seas
increase with proximity to Beryl in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 23.7N 93.5W
this evening, 24.9N 95.0W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane
near 26.2N 96.0W Sun evening, 27.7N 96.7W Mon morning, then move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 29.3N 96.8W Mon
evening. Conditions will deteriorate across the western Gulf of
Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast this weekend.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

A classic summertime pattern remains in force across the
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central
Caribbean, including within the Windward Passage and between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Seas in these winds are 5-7 ft.
Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are
expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend
and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1014 mb low pressure is centered in the northern Bahamas. A
surface trough extends southwest from the low over the Gulf
Stream, and also northeast of the low along 27N to 65W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 23N to 29N between 63W and 69W. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge across the midlatitude and subtropical Atlantic.
Satellite scatterometer data from this morning indicates gentle to
moderate trades across the basin, with fresh NE winds noted east
of 30W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, increasing to 7-11 ft in
the aforementioned area of fresh winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough over the northern
Bahamas will linger through the weekend before dissipating.
Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly
gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse
off the northern coast of Hispaniola later in the weekend.

$$
Mahoney