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AXNT20 KNHC 290215 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Updated to add Special Feature for Invest AL94

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Depression Two is centered near 9.1N
41.9W at 28/2100 UTC or 1060 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 15
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 42W
and 46W. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday
night and Monday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Saturday and a hurricane in a couple of days. Seas will increase
to above 12 ft by Sat afternoon and continue to be rough to very
rough over the next few days. Meanwhile, swells generated by the
depression are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in
Central America. The latest model guidance continues to suggest
high precipitation amounts through early next week. As the system
continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected
at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua through Sunday.
These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern Guatemala and
Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and
early next week. It is recommended that residents in the
aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from
their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical
Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations.

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated
before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The
system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over
the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where conditions
appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland again early
next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of
Central America and Mexico through early next week. Please refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W from 13N southward,
and moving west 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. Slow development of this
system is possible next week while it moves generally westward at
15 to 20 kt across the central and western tropical Atlantic. This
tropical wave has a LOW chance of development through two and
seven days.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 18N southward,
and moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 09N to 14N between 53W and 59W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from the western
tip of Cuba southward through a broad low pressure (AL94),
Honduras and Nicaragua. The whole system is moving westward at
around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 12N
to 22N between 79W and 87W. Earlier satellite scatterometer data
indicates fresh to strong, with locally near- gale force, SE winds
across the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 80W. Seas have
built to 5-8 ft in this same area. This system has a low chance of
developing into a tropical cyclone through the next two and seven
days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then curves
southwestward across 07N23W to 09N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 11N east of 38W. No segments of the
ITCZ are evident at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest
AL94.

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, outside of a weak
surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds prevail, with 1-3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and
3-5 ft seas are noted in the Yucatn Channel, due to a western
Caribbean tropical wave.

For the forecast, winds and seas may increase over the central
and west- central Gulf tonight through Sun night as a broad area
of low pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone
development reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve
Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a gale
warning associated with Invest AL95 and on the potential for heavy
rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America.

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest
AL94.

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on a western
Caribbean Tropical Wave and the associated winds and seas in the
NW Caribbean.

Outside of the active convection, elevated seas, and high winds in
the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Two is near
9.1N 41.9W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Two will strengthen to a tropical
storm near 9.4N 44.5W Sat morning, move to 10.1N 48.0W Sat
afternoon, 10.7N 51.5W Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near
11.3N 54.8W Sun afternoon, 12.0N 58.2W Mon morning, and 13.0N
61.9W Mon afternoon. Two will change little in intensity as it
moves to near 15.5N 69.2W Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, an area of low
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated with a
tropical wave continues to produce widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Development of this disturbance is not
expected today while it moves west- northwestward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest
AL95 and TD Two.

A weak surface trough is across the central Bahamas. Scattered
moderate convection is from 24N to 30N between 65W and 75W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 25N to 30N
between 51W and 55W. The remainder of the Atlantic outside of the
Tropical Waves and TD Two is dominated by high pressure centered
north of the area. Gentle to moderate trades are north of 20N, and
moderate to fresh trades are south of 20N. From 20N to 25N east
of 20W, fresh to strong NE winds are noted near the African coast.
Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
produce gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas NE of the
Bahamas. Winds and seas may begin to increase over the far
southeastern waters late Sat through Mon in advance of newly
formed Tropical Depression Two, that is expected to track in a
general westward motion into the Caribbean Sea Mon through Tue
night.

$$
AReinhart/JRL