Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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029 FXUS61 KBGM 191921 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 321 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting mainly dry and mild conditions. Spotty showers are possible for western parts of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Largely dry conditions are expected Sunday through much of Monday before the chance of showers returns Monday night into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will be remaining over the area tonight through Friday night leading to largely dry and quiet conditions. Skies will be mostly clear tonight and with light winds in place, we`ll have a good radiational cooling set up with widespread areas of fog expected into Friday morning. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 50s. After the morning fog, Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warm for much of the CWA. With the flow becoming more easterly east of I-81, there can be an uptick in moisture leading to some scattered afternoon clouds in the higher terrain of NE PA and the southern Catskills. A brief shower in one or two spots cannot be ruled out in this area. Highs Friday range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Skies will gradually become partly cloudy Friday night again with some areas of fog forming late. Lows will be in the 50s to near 60 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update: In what has been a rather quiet/dry period of weather with little to no change from one forecast cycle to another, there actually were rather significant changes made to the forecast for the short term period, mainly Saturday through Saturday night. A shortwave and associated surface frontal system is now anticipated to move east-southeastward and impact the weather for at least areas west of I-81, mainly from the Central Southern Tier of NY southward into Northeast PA/North-Central PA. This feature will have enough moisture and lift with it to result in at least some scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for those areas, mainly Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. Some model guidance is hinting at a narrow swath of heavier rainfall, but at this time this looks like it would occur south of our area (more across Central PA), if at all. With dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not expected to be a concern. At this time, there is much less of a chance of rain showers east of I-81, especially across the Catskills and Mohawk Valley, but this could change as it gets closer. Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected to continue with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees and overnight lows Saturday night mainly in the 50s. High pressure and weak ridging will move back into the area for Sunday, which will likely result in mostly sunny skies. Then partly cloudy to mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 245 PM Update: A bit of a pattern change will occur next week with high pressure moving out of the area and several shortwaves and weak low pressure systems moving through. Timing of these shortwaves is uncertain this far out, but scattered showers will be possible each day, although no particular day looks to be a washout at this time. In between these shortwaves, mainly dry conditions will be present, but again timing of this occurring is uncertain. Temperature-wise, it will be noticeably cooler with temperatures at, or even slightly below normal due to the increased cloud cover and shower activity. Daytime highs each day are currently expected to be in the 60s with overnight lows mainly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will remain in place through this evening. With mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, it will be a good set up for widespread fog to form overnight through early tomorrow morning and associated restrictions. Confidence is highest at ELM with restrictions expected to lift by around 14Z. Guidance also suggests fog is possible for ITH, BGM and RME, but with the fog being a very shallow layer on model soundings, there is lower confidence for these locations, especially ITH and BGM. After the morning fog lifts, it will be VFR through the rest of the TAF with winds remaining light. .Outlook... Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at ELM during the early morning hours. There is a low chance for showers and possible restrictions for ELM Saturday afternoon and evening. Tuesday...Scattered showers and potential restrictions possible as a frontal boundary approaches. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK NEAR TERM...DK SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...DK