Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
585 FXUS65 KBYZ 121935 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 135 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Thursday night... Satellite imagery shows a dry zonal flow and mostly clear skies in our region. There is a weak shortwave to our north, and low-level water vapor imagery shows very modest moistening from central ID into MT. This won`t amount to much but should result in a bit more high-based cumulus and mid cloud from now thru sunset. Many models produce a little QPF tonight in northwest SD in a region of very elevated and shallow instability (based at perhaps 650mb). This should be watched this evening but all indications are that any actual shower development will be east of Carter County. Otherwise, heights will build slowly from the west over the next 24 hours with flat ridging taking shape. Thus, continued dry wx is expected through Thursday evening. Behind the aforementioned wave to our north, a wind shift to NW then N-E will occur later tonight into tomorrow morning. Modest backdoor cooling will result in highs tomorrow a few degrees cooler than today (mid 70s to lower 80s). Ridge axis shifts east and heights begin to fall late Thursday night as a Pacific shortwave moves inland (associated w/ a deepening parent low off the BC coast). Lower elevations should remain dry, but a few light showers may spread to the Beartooth- Absarokas before daybreak Friday. This will be the first sign of the pattern shift upcoming. JKL Friday through Wednesday... For Friday, ridging will be in place, allowing for temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Perturbations in the low to mid level heights will create some lift for showers thunderstorms. Southeast flow will advect in moisture and warm air giving the region PWATs of 0.9-1.1 inches. With the increased instability, resulting MUCAPE values are around 1000-2000 J/kg (highest values in the far east). 0-6 km shear values of 30-40 kts and the sufficient instability will produce an environment favorable for thunderstorms with a few being severe. Storms will also have the potential to produce local heavy rainfall. The weekend remains unsettled with precip chances in the forecast for Saturday ahead of shortwave troughing and an associated strong cold front forecasted for Saturday night. Ensembles are differing on the track and strength of the low, so precip amounts and placement is uncertain at this time. Unsettled and cooler weather remains in place for the remainder of the forecast period with PoPs of 10-30% for most of the region. Monday morning, snow levels are forecasted to drop to around 7500 ft and the highest peaks have around a 35% chance to get at least 6 inches of snow. High temperatures will be in the 80s/low 90s Friday, 70s/80s Saturday, 60s/70s Sunday, 50s/60s Monday-Tuesday and 70s Wednesday. TS && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail across the region thru Thursday, under a dry westerly flow aloft. Mixed W-NW winds will be breezy til 01z this evening, especially along the western foothills and north/east of a KBIL-K00F line. Expect 20-30kt gusts in these areas, then lighter winds overnight and Thursday. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 052/080 056/088 058/085 051/071 048/062 045/067 047/075 00/U 02/T 31/B 10/B 34/T 42/W 22/T LVM 043/080 050/086 051/079 044/066 040/055 038/063 040/072 00/U 04/T 33/T 12/W 46/T 43/T 22/T HDN 050/082 055/090 056/088 050/073 047/065 043/067 045/076 00/U 02/T 41/U 20/B 44/T 43/W 22/W MLS 050/079 055/092 061/085 053/073 049/062 046/066 047/074 00/U 02/W 41/U 40/B 44/T 53/W 21/B 4BQ 053/081 056/092 061/089 054/074 050/065 047/067 045/074 00/U 02/T 31/U 20/B 43/W 42/W 21/B BHK 047/078 051/087 057/086 052/074 047/065 045/066 044/073 00/U 02/T 31/U 50/B 43/W 42/W 22/W SHR 049/081 052/089 055/088 049/074 044/065 040/064 041/074 10/U 02/T 21/U 10/B 43/T 42/W 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings