868
FXUS61 KCAR 302040
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
440 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west tonight into Monday
and crest south of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough
of low pressure will cross the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
440 pm update...
Line of convection heading into interior Downeast along pre-frontal
trough with isolated showers and thunderstorms remaining across
the far north ahead of the cold front. Have cancelled the Watch
across the north as airmass has been worked over from previous
convection with unstable airmass over interior Downeast. Have
not had any wind reports further south toward Bangor, which may
have been impacted by marine layer with convection likely
becoming increasingly elevated. No other chgs needed with this
update.

Prev discussion blo...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 8pm this evening.
Lines of convection continue to impact the CWA this afternoon
heading into a much more favorable environment for severe
weather, including tornadoes. Have already received a report of
a funnel cloud along the Penobcot/Aroostook line. Expect this to
continue as cams are showing the line continuing thru the
southern part of the area this afternoon before moving offshore
around 00z.

As cold front moves through tonight, expect showers and storms
come to an end late this evening. Skies clear from north to
south tonight with Monday starting out mostly sunny over nrn
parts of the area with entire area sunny by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the area through the first half
of the week, with clear skies Monday night into the day on
Tuesday and light winds. This pattern is also a favorable
pattern for prime radiational cooling, which will allow for
temperatures to drop into the lower 50s to potentially into the
40s across the north. For the Downeast region, temperatures may
fall just below average into the mid 50s.

The ridge of high pressure will gradually shift eastward Tuesday
night into Wednesday, allowing for winds to shift to out of the
southwest and warm air advection to return to the region. Cloud
cover will also begin to increase on Wednesday ahead of the next
low pressure system approaching from the west. Despite the
increasing clouds, temperatures will still warm, with highs into
the lower 80s across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front may begin to cross the area Wednesday night,
bringing the next round of rain showers through the area into
the day on Thursday. Current guidance suggests that as the
parent low begins to occlude, support of the cold front will
falter, and rain showers may become scattered as the front
weakens during its passage.

Another region of high pressure should follow the cold front on
Friday, allowing for the area to dry out. This high pressure may
not last long, as another low pressure system approaches for the
weekend, bringing the next chance for widespread rain. That
said, guidance remains inconsistent with when or where this low
pressure will track, though there seems to be more confidence in
the low tracking somewhere across Maine sometime this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR over northern terminals with showers and VCTS
expected this afternoon into the evening hours. Thunderstorms
possible at BGR and BHB this afternoon. BHB will remain LIFR
through 07z Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Mon night - Tues night: VFR across all terminals under clear
skies, VFR clouds increasing late Tues. Winds light and
variable.

Wed: VFR across all terminals. Winds shifting S to SW at 5 to
10 kts.

Wed night - Thurs: VFR cigs continue, along with scattered rain
showers moving through early Thurs morning through the day on
Thurs. Winds S to SW at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts
possible.

Fri: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft continues through late this evening with
seas diminishing after midnight. West winds this evening shift
around to the north Monday morning with gusts only up to 20kts
intially. Seas drop below 4ft in the morning.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels
through the middle of the week. For Thursday into Friday,
southerly swell could increase seas towards 5 ft on the coastal
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Buster/AStrauser
Marine...Buster/AStrauser