784
FXUS64 KCRP 290742
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
242 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect again today
- Increasing rip current risk this weekend

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery this morning depicts some low
level stratus streaming across the Coastal Plains as a ~30 knot H92
LLJ ushers deeper moisture through the region. Winds will likely
remain a bit to breezy to allow for fog to develop this morning.
Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over the area today.
Just like yesterday, another weak shortwave rotates along the
southern periphery of the high. However, guidance has been pretty
consistent with bringing some "slightly" drier air into the region.
PWATs look to dip down into the 1.7-1.8" range. While this may still
seem high, our 00Z KCRP sounding last night revealed a 2.16" PWAT.
With that said, I wouldn`t be surprised to see a rogue shower or
storm develop as we reach our convective temps this afternoon.

Another Heat Advisory will be in effect for much of the region
from 1PM to 6PM. The influx of drier air will be the main factor
in determining if we will achieve our max heat indices today or
not. If there air arrives sooner than expected, we likely won`t
top 110 this afternoon. However, it appears that the drier air
will be delayed just long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for
today. The end time of 6PM may be too long so wouldn`t be
surprised if we see it cancelled early.

The pattern changes a bit on Sunday as a tropical wave moves into
the Bay of Campeche. NHC has a medium (40%) chance of development
over the next two days for this wave. A tropical depression could
form early next week before moving inland over Mexico. As this
wave moves to our south, a plume of deep tropical moisture will
spread across our southern counties. As a result, we have a 30-50%
chance of showers and thunderstorms. With that said, the deeper
moisture will have to fight through some Saharan dust that is also
forecast to arrive Sunday afternoon.

In addition to the increased rain chances, we will also see our
coastal hazards return. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
to develop through the day Sunday as seas begin to elevate. Our
rip current risk increases from Moderate to High on Sunday as
swells increase across the Western Gulf. The high risk will likely
be extended into the work week. Minor coastal flooding may also
be possible during times of high tide.|

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday,
becoming moderate to major by mid week.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding
possible Monday.

The overall upper level pattern hasn`t changed, and looks to remain
somewhat stagnant through Thursday, before a 500 mb trough pushes
the upper ridge south into Texas and along the Gulf Coast. While
areas to the north could get some showers and thunderstorms, it for
the most part looks continue to keep us relatively rain free. The
only real chances would be with the tropical wave that is expected
to move through the Bay of Campeche Sunday and Sunday night before
it moves into Mexico around Tampico. As the wave moves into Mexico,
the models show some potential for some rain to move north from the
RGV into Coastal Bend and the Brush Country. However, the chance is
15-20% Sunday night. Drier air moves into the region on Monday
(PWATs fall to less than 2.0"), which lowers the RH and the Heat
Index, despite 95-101F sfc max temperatures, in the Brush Country.
Saharan Dust also makes its way into South Texas Sunday into Monday
producing hazy conditions. Tuesday through Saturday, temperatures
slowly increase into the 100-105 range in the Brush Country with
some moisture pushing into the region a little more. The Heat Risk
moves up from the minor to moderate levels to the moderate to major
risk as the Heat indices push up passed 110F. Sunday night into
Monday will also have a high risk of rip currents and minor coastal
flooding, as the swells from the wave moving into Mexico begin to
have periods of 9-10 seconds. The wave energy is expected to push
the water up to the dunes over a large areas of the beach. The water
recedes Tuesday as the tropical wave, and its swells move out of the
region. Going into the 4th of July and the weekend the weather looks
quiet, but hot.

"Beryl" is still a long way off with the ensemble members of the
ECMWF and GFS still in the Caribbean sea Friday and on some models,
Saturday. So it is too early to tell details on how it would affect
the Gulf, but the early indications is that the 500 mb ridge would
keep it suppressed to the south, which is where the majority of the
ensemble members put it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Breezy south to southeasterly winds will diminish overnight
before increasing once again mid-morning Saturday. VFR conditions
are in place and will continue through most of the TAF period,
with a brief TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings between 08Z and 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will continue
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely
to develop through the day Sunday as seas build to near 10 feet at
times, generally over the offshore waters, as a tropical wave
moves into the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. Weak to moderate east
to southeast winds are expected Monday, becoming weaker and more
southerly by Monday night into Tuesday. The remainder of the week,
winds are expected to be weak to moderate and generally south.
Seas decrease through the day Monday. Rain chances decrease the
remainder of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  81  94  79 /   0  10  30  10
Victoria          94  78  95  75 /  10  10  20   0
Laredo           100  80  97  77 /   0  10  40  10
Alice             97  78  96  76 /   0  10  30   0
Rockport          94  83  94  81 /  10  10  20   0
Cotulla          102  80  99  78 /   0  10  20   0
Kingsville        96  81  95  78 /   0  10  40  10
Navy Corpus       91  84  92  83 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229>234-240>244-246-247.

     High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...LS