Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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335 FXUS64 KCRP 231724 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Synopsis: The short term forecast period is characterized by a mid-level high near ARK/LA/TX this morning and is expected to retro-grade west over west Texas/NM by tomorrow. A broad area of low pressure is forming in the southwestern Gulf with minimal impacts expected along the Middle Texas Coast. This weather pattern will be accompanied by isolated to scattered showers/storms, light winds, coastal flooding and a high risk of rip currents. Current Conditions: -Showers: A few Isolated showers have developed overnight and early this morning with most activity thus far staying south of our CWA. Today/Tonight: - Precipitation: Expect a moderate 50-70% chance of precipitation this morning along the southern Coastal Bend, shifting to the west over the southern Brush Country this afternoon with a break overnight tonight. Tomorrow: - Precipitation: low chances (20-40%) for showers/thunderstorms near the Coastal Bend in the morning, then coverage spreads across the region during the afternoon. Temperature Forecast: - Near Normal Temperatures: Temperatures will continue to hover near normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s today and a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Expect overnight lows tonight in the mid 70s to low 80s. - Heat Indices: Heat indices are expected to be between 105-109 this afternoon increasing slightly tomorrow to around 110 degrees in several locations. A Heat Advisory is not expected at this time. Tropical: - A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf remains relatively disorganized, but has a medium 40% chance of tropical development this weekend. This system is expected to have little to no impacts expected to South Texas as it is progged to stay south of our region, affecting the eastern Mexican coast. - Local Effects: South Texas could experience some increased swells and isolated showers/storms. The Lower Rio Grande Valley is projected to receive the heaviest rainfall. Coastal Conditions: - Water Levels: Elevated water levels persist today with minor coastal flooding accompanied by a high risk of rip currents across the Coastal Bend. Water levels are continuing to decrease. - Coastal Flood Advisory: The Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in effect through Sunday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Key Messages: - Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related impacts - Rain chances return late this week Dry and hot conditions are expected to return for much of the week with a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the week. A mid to upper-level ridge will remain aloft over West Texas through Wednesday night/Thursday before weakening and shifting to the Southeast, and elongating from west to east just north of the region. By the end of the week, a mid- level shortwave riding the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse over South Texas interacting with PWAT between 1.90-2.20" which could lead to showers and/or thunderstorms. As confidence still remains low due to this feature being on day 8, only went with low to medium chances for rain. With increased subsidence from the ridge and a moist shallow layer, elevated to dangerous heat indices (feels like temperatures) are expected to once again rear its ugly head into the forecast. Current probabilities of exceeding heat indices of 109 degrees (Heat Advisory conditions) are 30-50% Tuesday through Thursday from the Coastal Bend to the Brush Country and 10-25% to exceed 114 degrees (Excessive Heat Warning conditions)for the aforementioned area. Chances for heat indices over 109 degrees across the Victoria Crossroads will be low with a less than 25% chance. With the elevated to dangerous heat indices returning, the entire region will have a moderate risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours. The better chance for TSRAs will be CRP, ALI and LRD TAF sites. Rain chances diminish this evening then increase overnight into Monday morning. Otherwise, expecting VFR conditions to prevail through much of the TAF period with brief periods of MVFR conditions either due to convection or possible patchy fog overnight. IFR conditions can not be ruled out with the heavier downpours. Surface winds will generally be light from the east and southeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today a moderate 40-70% chance for showers offshore becoming a low chance around 15-30% tonight. Weak to moderate easterly flow this morning becomes southeasterly tonight. There`s a Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected for much of the week before increasing to moderate to strong levels (15-20 knots) Friday. Rain chances will be low throughout the week with seas subsiding to under 3 feet Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 79 91 79 / 60 10 20 0 Victoria 92 76 93 76 / 30 0 20 0 Laredo 91 77 94 78 / 60 30 20 0 Alice 91 76 93 76 / 60 10 30 0 Rockport 91 81 92 82 / 40 10 20 0 Cotulla 95 78 96 79 / 20 10 10 0 Kingsville 90 78 92 78 / 60 10 30 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 90 82 / 60 10 20 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...TE/81