Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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452 FXUS63 KDLH 201126 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today with highs in the seventies. - A cold front will move through the Northland Saturday and a few strong storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and early evening over mainly northwest Wisconsin. Highs Saturday will range from the lower seventies over western areas to around eighty over northwest Wisconsin. - Temperatures will be closer to normal values Sunday into early next week with a slight warming trend into late week. Widespread significant rainfall is unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Weak ridging will move through the region today leading to dry conditions with highs in the seventies. Mixing will increase this morning leading some westerly gusts of 15 to around 20 mph. Warm air advection will occur tonight ahead of a cold front. A southerly low level jet as seen at 850mb from 30-40 knots will aid in producing lift for some showers/thunderstorms after midnight over parts of central and northeast Minnesota to far northwest Wisconsin. A cold front will move west to east through the Northland during the day Saturday into the evening with PWAT values rising to around 1.3" ahead of the front. MUCAPE will build to around 1000J/kg during the afternoon into northwest Wisconsin. Effective shear is forecast to be around 35 knots and mid-level lapse rates will be around 7.5C/km. There will be a narrow window Saturday afternoon into early evening over northwest Wisconsin where a few strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. There is a non-zero chance for a severe storm or two. Cooler air will sweep across the Northland Saturday night behind the front and highs Sunday will be near normal values in the sixties. High pressure will build in Saturday night into Sunday. Cool temperatures Saturday night may lead to some frost in spots, mainly over far northern Minnesota. Ridging will build over the West Coast late in the weekend into early next week with mainly dry conditions with temperatures near or slightly above normal values across the region. A shortwave is forecast next Tuesday but precipitation chances are minimal. The upper ridge will move east into the Northern Plains by mid- week, continuing slowly east through late week. This will keep much of the region dry but temperatures will rise a bit mid-late week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 An area of clouds with bases from MVFR to low VFR were occurring from near KY49 to KINL and were moving east. There was also some patchy fog and webcams at KHIB showed some ground fog. The fog will lift around or shortly after 13Z. Low VFR or MVFR ceilings will continue at KINL into early afternoon and should move into KHIB this morning and even KDLH will see a period of broken ceilings. These clouds continue will east with drier air moving in behind. Mixing will deepen today and will lead to gusty winds of 15 to 20 knots at times. The wind will diminish this evening. Warm air advection and a low level jet will lead to increasing clouds late tonight along with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms at KBRD/KDLH/KHYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 West or southwest winds from 10 to around 15 knots will occur today with gusts of 15 to near 25 knots. The strongest gusts will occur along the South Shore and from Grand Marias to Grand Portage. The wind will diminish tonight then briefly become easterly on Saturday ahead of a cold front. The wind will switch to west or northwest behind the front Saturday evening and gust from 15 to 25 knots. A few thunderstorms will be possible Saturday into Saturday evening ahead of the cold front. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Melde AVIATION...Melde MARINE...Melde