547
FXUS63 KDLH 271016
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
516 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is likely to
  return Thursday night and ends Friday midday. The heaviest
  rainfall is most likely along and north of the Iron Range into
  the Arrowhead of far northern Minnesota.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible (5% chance) in
  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday afternoon
  and evening

- Residual showers Saturday in northeast Minnesota give way to
  a dry Sunday before the next round of moderate to locally
  heavy rainfall is forecast to return Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure over the area this morning has produced light
winds and mostly clear skies, and with the recent rainfall, fog
is developing in part of the area, mainly around the Brainerd
Lakes and in lower lying areas along the Iron Range. Expect a
few more hours of reduced visibilities, but this fog should
quickly dissipate within an hour or two of sunrise. Otherwise we
should have a quiet day with a warmer day than Wednesday as
southerly flow begins to set up over the area with the high
pressure sliding to the east of the area this afternoon.

Our next weather making system will push a warm front into the
area tonight, moving northeast from the Northern Plains into
north-central Minnesota this evening. The latest guidance has
this moving in slightly faster than before, with precipitation
chances increasing during the late afternoon for for the
Brainerd Lakes region, the spreading northeast during the
evening and overnight. The moist southerly advection
accompanying this front provides the next chance for widespread
light to moderate rainfall for Thursday night into Friday
morning. The main axis of precipitation has shifted slightly
south from where it was yesterday, so now the highest
probabilities (>50%) of more than an inch of rainfall are now
south of the Iron Range, with only a 10% chance of more than 2
inches in the same area. The NAM continues to push the warm
front all the way into Ontario, but the newer high resolution
models are keeping that boundary farther south as is a bit more
typical this time of year, and have favored these more southerly
solutions.

An axis of instability is expected to extend into northwest
Minnesota Friday afternoon, with somewhat favorable mid-level
lapse rates aligning along the instability axis to support a
small severe weather threat into north-central Minnesota by the
late afternoon to evening hours. Model forecast soundings show
that the window of potential severe storms is going to be rather
narrow, with the area of greatest instability of no more than
1000 J/kg CAPE in that area of around 7 C/km lapse rates. The
deep layer shear is strong, but the low level shear parameters
are too messy for the best setup. Do not have concerns for much
more than scattered strong to near-severe thunderstorms for the
Brainerd Lakes to western Iron Range locations for the evening
hours. Lingering showers with only a little thunder to linger
behind the main cold front overnight. Diurnally driven showers
and isolated thunderstorms are favored Saturday afternoon and
early evening in the cyclonic flow behind the cold front, but
severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
through the area Monday through Tuesday, bringing another round
of mainly light to moderate rainfall. There may be a period of
storms with locally heavy rainfall Monday evening. Smaller
precipitation chances linger through much of the rest of the
week with a broad trough over the area and shortwaves moving
through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR ceilings with northwest winds of 5 kts or less are expected
for the terminals through at least 00z this TAF period. Fog is
possible at several terminals with MVFR/IFR visibilities, but
confidence is not very high and have included TEMPO groups for
several sites between 09z and 12z. Showers and storms along to
spread in from the southwest after 00z, with MVFR conditions
moving in after 02z for KBRD.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Light winds this morning will become southeast later today then
increase overnight into Friday. These winds are likely to cause
hazardous conditions to develop on Friday. Shower and storm
chances will move in late tonight and continue through Friday.
After a break Friday night, there will be another chance of
showers and storms on Saturday. A cold front with these storms
Friday night will cause winds to switch to westerly, then
increase again for Saturday before diminishing into Saturday
night and Sunday. Hazardous conditions for small craft may
develop once again during the day on Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE