470
FNUS22 KWNS 241919
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble
guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire
weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR;
however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate
diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development
remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late
Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values
(already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward
ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this
moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and
forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce
wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning
threat remains limited.

..Moore.. 06/24/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into
the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker
across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential
for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in
parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level
trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface
pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A
surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this
will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time,
only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from
parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho.

A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as
well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms
along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in
storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to
near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area
where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also
much lower.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$