219
FXUS62 KFFC 280613
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Thunderstorms continue to drift northward out of central GA along a
sfc low assisted seabreeze. Thunderstorms are light and scattered
along the line, though a rumble of thunder here and there is likely
with these. Another broken line of small thunderstorms is moving
south of I-20 along the boundary formed by cloud coverage this
morning. These will likely continue to drift south until colliding
with the southern line. Further thunderstorm development is likely
between the lines as they near each other. Scattered thunderstorms
remain possible across the rest of the area through the evening hours
given our weak CAPE and assistance from the passing mid level
trough. Precipitation values will likely remain below 0.5" in any
place though locally higher amounts may be possible.

Thunderstorms should begin to clear out with sunset as the daytime
energy falls. A few showers may be possible overnight given the
increased PWATS near 2.0" and weak lift. Scattered thunderstorms will
likely pick back up late tomorrow morning.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be notably cooler than the past
several days. Cloud coverage and precipitation will be the main
drivers of this. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s and low
90s.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Extended begins with a broad flat 500mb ridge axis extending from TX
eastward across the SE into the Atlantic with an implied weakness in
that axis across the SE states. The upper level system analyzed over
AL today drifts south then northeastward across N. GA on Saturday
all while continuing to weaken and become more diffuse. NBM guidance
is aggressive with pops on Sat with 80-90 pops across N GA which may
in part be due to 1) the lack of an suppressing ridge and 2) whats
left of the remnant low. Deterministic runs wouldn`t necessarily
support likely to def pops but do not have strong confidence to lower
either given the factors in play including 2"+ pwats to work with.
Additionally, what looked like a potential heat advisory kind of day
yesterday (for Saturday) is now backed off considerably due to the
expectation of more clouds/showers around. End result is lower max
T/apparent T values. Will have to watch trends going into Saturday
since Dpt values will be high thus trends in lower pops would result
in higher apparent T values.

By Sunday going into Monday, 500mb and 700mb ridge begin to amplify
to the west across the ArklaTex region and extend east into the SE
US. Pops on Sunday..for now are lower which when combined with mid 70
dpts will make for 105+ apparent T values...particularly SE zones.
But similar to how the trend for Saturday has gone, will need to
watch trends for clouds/shower chances as it seems to be the big heat
advisory buster in recent years.

During the day Monday a front sinks south on the eastern periphery
of the ridge dragging some drier air with it into the state. Guidance
is mixed on how far south the drier air pushes but it should result
in a decent gradient of pops from lower values north to higher south
across the frontal zone. Temps still warmer than average area wide,
but again could be influenced heavily by showers/storms.

Gradual warming trend Tue and Wed as upper ridge builds in across
the SE states. Pops return to more climo to slightly below climo
values. At the same time, attention may become more focused on
95L and where it may end up going as it should be somewhere in the
Central Caribbean about this time. Strength/breakdown of the ridge
over the SE and newly developing ridge over the western US will
ultimately have an impact on whether the system turns northward or
continues WNW. Stay tuned.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Skies are currently VFR at all TAF sites. Low clouds are expected to
develop and lower toward daybreak at most locations, with a period
of 600-900 ft cigs possible. Isolated showers will continue near a
quasi-stationary front N of the Atlanta area terminals. Some patchy
fog is possible around the area as well, particularly in recent rain
areas and near bodies of water. Cigs will lift and thin a bit later
this morning, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected. Light,
mostly SE winds this morning will pick up a bit during the day, with
directions veering toward S. Will keep easterly component at ATL
through the day.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on IFR cigs and thunderstorm timing. High on remaining
elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  75  96 /  40  70  30  60
Atlanta         74  91  75  94 /  40  70  30  60
Blairsville     69  84  70  88 /  50  90  30  80
Cartersville    73  91  72  94 /  40  80  30  70
Columbus        74  93  75  96 /  40  60  30  70
Gainesville     74  89  75  93 /  50  80  30  60
Macon           73  94  75  96 /  40  60  20  70
Rome            74  93  75  94 /  30  80  30  70
Peachtree City  72  92  73  94 /  40  60  20  60
Vidalia         74  95  76  96 /  40  60  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...SEC