Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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650 FXUS64 KFWD 292003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 115 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ /This Weekend/ This morning started warm, with both DFW and Waco only falling to 81 degrees. This value will break the daily record high minimum temperature at DFW and ties the record at Waco. This afternoon will be another hot day with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat index values between 105-112. An Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect through the afternoon. Please continue to take precautions to beat the heat, particularly if you spend a prolonged period of time outdoors. Isolated showers will develop across eastern Central Texas this afternoon, but strong subsidence from a mid-level ridge should keep the coverage/chance of storms at or below 10%. Little change in the local pattern tonight will result in another warm night with overnight lows in the low 80s to upper 70s, or 5-10 degrees above average. Tomorrow`s daily record high minimum temperature record at DFW is 80, which has a greater than 70% chance of being broken. Tomorrow`s highs will be similar to today, but deeper afternoon mixing will lower the heat index by several degrees. We are not planning to extend the Excessive Heat Warning into tomorrow, but will likely extend a Heat Advisory through tomorrow for the entire forecast area later this afternoon. There are low precip chances late tonight and tomorrow as a cold front moves south across the Central Plains. The early morning activity would come in the form of warm-advection showers across far northeast Texas and should dissipate by the early afternoon. The "cooler" air behind the cold front is not expected to move across the Red River, however the front will be a trigger for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon to our north. Strong cold pools are likely, with new storms developing along outflow boundaries. Weak steering flow will cause the storms to propagate along the outflows and move into our Red River counties late in the day. We don`t expect storms to move much further south than highway 380 due to the dominance of the mid-level ridge. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: No significant changes were needed with this afternoon`s update. Hot temperatures will continue through the next week, with slightly less intense heat indices than the recent few days. Low storm chances (20%) are advertised for East TX Monday afternoon, with the greatest coverage remaining outside of the forecast area. A weak front nearing the region and additional low rain chances may bring a brief reprieve from the heat to the area on Days 7-8. Gordon Previous Discussion: /Sunday Night Through Next Week/ Widespread triple digit temperatures will continue throughout the week, with the hottest temperatures expected on Tuesday. Heat index values will be between 103-110 degrees each day, but >110 degrees should be less common than we experienced this week. Heat headlines will continue throughout the week for most (if not all) areas. There are some early indications that the ridge responsible for our hot and quiet weather will weaken and shift further west late next week. As a result, rain chances will return late in the week and potentially continue into next weekend. While most of the rain would occur Friday onward, it`s worth monitoring the forecast if you have any outdoor plans for the July 4th holiday, as timing is certainly subject to change over the next several days. Barnes && .AVIATION... /Issued 115 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period at the D10 terminals. A few changes in the cloud cover will occur, but most of the changes will be operationally insignificant and therefore were not included in the TAFs. A diurnal Cu field based around 5-6 kft should linger through the afternoon and dissipate this evening. While another MVFR stratus intrusion is likely across Central Texas/ACT, there is only a 15% chance it moves over the D10 terminals. We do expect a VFR ceiling based between 4-6 kft to develop near the Red River after 06-09Z, but it should remain north of the D10 terminals. Scattered storms are expected tomorrow afternoon over southern Oklahoma, but should remain well north of D10. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 100 82 101 82 / 5 10 0 5 0 Waco 78 99 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 5 0 Paris 79 95 76 94 76 / 5 20 5 10 0 Denton 80 99 79 101 79 / 5 10 0 5 0 McKinney 80 98 79 99 79 / 5 10 0 5 0 Dallas 82 99 82 101 81 / 5 10 0 5 0 Terrell 78 97 78 98 78 / 5 10 0 10 0 Corsicana 79 98 79 99 80 / 5 5 0 5 0 Temple 77 98 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 78 100 78 101 78 / 0 5 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159-161-162. Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159-161-162. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ115-129-130-141>143- 156>158-160-174-175. && $$