374
FXUS63 KICT 260713
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms early this morning across southeast KS with some
  strong/severe storms possible

- Active pattern looks to remain in place with storms possible late
tonight into Thu across mainly Central KS with another round Thu
night into Fri morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Currently have widespread convection from central MO into
southeast Nebraska and north central KS and are diving quickly
southeast. This activity is developing in an area of good
850-700mb moisture transport and also along a mid level
baroclinc zone. Some additional storms developed a few hours ago
across southeast KS along the same mid level temp gradient.
Obviously with the severity of the storms there are no lack of
elevated instability or effective shear.

Storms are expected to continue tracking south and southeast with
southeast KS having the best chance to see storms early this
morning. With still around 2,000J/KG CAPE above 850mb and 30-
40kts of effective shear, strong and severe storms will be
possible with the stronger activity.

Storms are expected to move south of the forecast area by late this
morning leaving hot and dry conditions in place for the remainder of
the day. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper impulse over
northern portions of the Central Great Basin. This feature will
quickly track east today, moving out across the Central Rockies this
evening. This will bring another round of convection coming off the
High Plains tonight with good model agreement on storms moving into
northwest KS generally after 03z and central KS after 06z. Just like
what is occurring now, MCS will be the result of impressive 850-
700mb theta-e advection with another mid level baroclinc zone in
place. In addition, PW values will be around 175% of normal across
the western half of KS.  Storms are expected to continue across at
least central KS through Thu morning with this activity possibly
laying out one or more outflow boundaries which may keep some
convection around Thu afternoon, especially across Central KS.

There is some model agreement in an additional upper perturbation,
that is currently over the Desert Southwest, moving out across
KS Thu evening which may bring yet another around of convection
to central KS into Nebraska. By Fri morning, MCS should be
moving across eastern KS with dry conditions expected for most
of Fri. However, a cold front will sag south on Fri evening in
response to a shortwave trough tracking across the Northern
Plains. This will keep storm chances going for Fri night thru
Sat night, especially across southern KS where the boundary will
be situated.

Upper ridging will build across the Southern Plains for Sun into
Mon and will allow the better storm chances to lift north for
the start of the work week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A weak cold front will move southward across the area late
tonight through early Wednesday morning. A convective complex
dropping south-southeast from the lower Missouri Valley may clip
far southeast Kansas toward dawn, so have inserted VCTS at KCNU.
Otherwise, the main impact of the front will be the wind shift.
VFR conditions expected thru forecast valid period, except in
any convection.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KED