329
FXUS63 KIND 060440
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1240 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as humid Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures.

- Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...

A couple of rogue showers redeveloped over eastern counties between
23Z and 00Z but those have moved over into Ohio with high pressure
now fully exerting its influence across central Indiana. 0130Z
temperatures remained in the mid and upper 70s but the noticeable
change is the drop in dewpoints from the muggy 70s earlier to more
comfortable low and mid 60s this evening.

The ongoing forecast is in excellent shape as the high settles over
the area overnight. Expect clearing skies with light westerly flow.
The drop in dewpoints should largely inhibit fog formation early
Saturday. Lows will fall into the low and mid 60s.

Zone and grids out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A cold front, moving into the Wabash Valley, will sweep across
central Indiana this afternoon before moving into Ohio late in the
day. Meanwhile, an upper trough, over the western Great Lakes, will
weaken and pivot northeast into northern Ontario on Saturday.
Surface high pressure will build in from the west and provide
subsidence tonight and Saturday. Hi-Res soundings are showing nice
drying tonight and Saturday which will result in clearing skies save
some diurnal fair weather cu Saturday afternoon per cu development
progs. Prior to that, frontal forcing, weak to moderate CAPE and 40-
50 knot deep bulk shear could support a few strong to severe storms,
the remainder of the afternoon, over areas roughly along and east of
US-31. However, so far, lightningcast is not high on imminent
lightning, but the RBC day convection satellite loop was suggesting
glaciation wasn`t far off.

Post frontal dew points in the upper 50s to middle 60s and nice
radiation cooling should result in overnight lows in the upper 50s
to middle 60s. Hi-Res models were not keying in on any fog as the
boundary layer dries out. However, would not rule out some shallow
fog in areas that receive decent rainfall through the afternoon.
Will take another look on the evening shift before adding any,
however.

Plenty of sunshine under high pressure should allow temperatures to
at least come close to normal Saturday with highs in the upper 70s
to middle 80s looking good per DESI.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Dry weekend ahead but daily chances for showers and storms return
next week.

Broad upper troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region through the majority of the period placing Indiana within
southwesterly flow just ahead of the trough axis. Multiple waves
riding around the trough next week in addition to Gulf moisture
directed northeastward into the Ohio Valley will bring daily chances
for showers and storms beginning late Monday.

Dry and quiet conditions Sunday as the area remains under the
influence of low level ridging and high pressure to the northeast.
Warm air advection and flow turning southwesterly aloft will result
in highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across the region. Skies will
remain mostly clear through Sunday night before the pattern shifts
going into Monday.

Troughing approaches from the northwest on Monday; however most of
the energy and lift will still be further west most of there day.
Expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the day with
chances for rain increasing Monday evening and Monday night. Models
are suggesting a localized area of convergence where higher
precipitation amounts are likely, but there remains quite a bit of
model spread as to where exactly that settles.  There is some model
clustering across the upper Wabash Valley for this axis, but it may
be as far north as the Chicago area or as far south as south central
Indiana. Instability will be the limiting factor keeping the severe
potential to near zero.

Forecast confidence then falls off Wednesday into the end of the
week. Guidance keeps upper troughing west of the state with upper
level southwesterly flow from Texas to the lower Great Lakes. A
lower level boundary also seemsexpanding into central Indiana in the wake of a
cold frontal passage. Diurnal cu will diminish towards sunset
leaving just scattered cirrus overnight with light westerly winds.
The expansion of an upper level trough into the area on Saturday
will increase high clouds in the morning with a healthy VFR cu field
developing for the afternoon. to set up from Texas through the
Ohio Valley where Gulf moisture will be directed northward.
Remnants of Hurricane Beryl will also be directed along this
boundary northward likely increasing rainfall coverage and
intensity in that area. Due to lower confidence with the track of
Beryl and where this boundary could ends up, there is a lot of
uncertainty with finer details and where the heaviest rainfall
axis develops. Currently it looks like the boundary and axis of
heaviest rainfall could stay along and south of the Ohio River,
but keeping low PoPs each day to account for uncertainty. Skies
will likely be on the cloudier side, especially in southern
portions of the state as moisture streams in over the boundary, so
kept temperatures a tad below guidance in the low to mid 80s
through much of the week.

&&expanding into central Indiana in the wake of a
cold frontal passage. Diurnal cu will diminish towards sunset
leaving just scattered cirrus overnight with light westerly winds.
The expansion of an upper level trough into the area on Saturday
will increase high clouds in the morning with a healthy VFR cu field
developing for the afternoon.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Impacts:

- VFR conditions are expected.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Central Plains will be expanding across
Central Indiana overnight and through Saturday. This will result in
clear skies overnight. Forecast soundings suggest diurnal cu
development on Saturday. Thus some BKN VFR cigs have been included
through the peak heating hours of the day. W/NW winds will be near
10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma