726
FXUS63 KIWX 271839
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
239 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan
  through late afternoon. Dangerous currents are likely, in
  addition to waves of 3 to 5 feet.

- Showers and thunderstorms move in Friday evening and persist
  through Saturday night.

- Mild and dry weather Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Surface high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is keeping the
area cool and dry today under northerly winds. Highs are only in
the 70s this afternoon. Skies have been mostly clear, and the
few fair weather cumulus that have developed with daytime
heating will fade away this evening. Therefore, radiational
cooling will bring overnight lows down to around 60 degrees.
Dry weather will persist on Friday, but moisture and clouds and
heat will increase as the flow swings southerly. Rainfall
chances then also increase on Friday night with a series of
shortwaves in progressive westerly flow aloft.

Showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Saturday, and SPC
has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Bulk shear
will be increasing to around 40 kts, and there is sufficient
CAPE ahead of and along the cold front that will be sinking down
through the region Saturday afternoon to warrant this
assessment. Details will become more clear as we get closer to
that time.

Cooler and drier weather return behind the front for Sunday. It
will stay dry on Monday, but warm slightly as the upper ridge
builds. The next chance for storms will be late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as another front moves in. But models show this
front stalling over the area on Wednesday and temperatures
warming into the upper 80s. This seems a bit warm given cloud
cover and rain, but will leave the NBM forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period with synoptic ridging
in place.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Andersen