938
FXUS64 KMOB 291121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail for the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will increase in
coverage by the afternoon. Expect brief reductions in
visibilities and ceilings under the heavier activity. Convective
coverage will decrease during the evening hours. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Our active summertime pattern continues through the weekend.
Looking aloft, a very weak upper- level inverted trough is
expected to linger over the Gulf Coast through the remainder of
the day today before dissipating by the evening hours. By tonight
and into Sunday, an upper ridge over the south central US expands
eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of
this ridge. This gives way to a light northeasterly to easterly
flow pattern aloft, and a few weak shortwave impulses look to pass
overhead as they move within this flow. At the surface, the
dominant feature that will be in place through the period will be
the typical summertime land/sea breeze circulation. With PWATs
exceeding 2 inches across the entire area and a highly unstable
environment in place, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop both days. As has been the
case for the past few days, convection will start by developing
over coastal counties and marine zones during the morning hours.
By the afternoon, this activity will spread inland as the sea
breeze pushes northward and interacts with outflow boundaries.
Activity will gradually wane during the evening hours thanks to
the loss of daytime heating. As is the case with typical
summertime convection, although severe storms are generally not
expected, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with some of the stronger storms that manage to
develop.

Highs for today will top out in the low 90s. We should stay just
below Heat Advisory criteria today, with heat indices climbing into
the 102 to 107 degree range. Lows tonight will remain very mild,
with temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s inland and the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow
look to top out a couple degrees warmer than today... generally in
the mid 90s. This slight bump in temperatures should help to
increase our heat indices into the 105 to 110 degree range, and
therefore a Heat Advisory will likely become necessary for much of
the local area. A Low Risk of rip currents will be in place through
this afternoon. By tonight and especially into Sunday, long period
swell, likely originating from Invest 94L as it emerges into the Bay
of Campeche, will reach our local beaches. This will likely cause a
quick uptick in rip currents, and therefore a High Risk of rip
currents is now in effect from late tonight into Sunday evening. /96

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Upper level high pressure strengthen and gradually build eastward
from the vicinity of Texas/Oklahoma and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley region into the early part of next week. The upper ridge
will continue to build across much of the Deep South and Gulf
Coast region by Tuesday and continuing through the middle to
latter part of the week. Hot and very humid conditions are
expected each day Sunday through Friday with highs reaching into
the 90s and afternoon heat index values likely ranging between
105-110 degrees each day. Heat Advisories will likely become
necessary over much of our region by Sunday and Monday and
potentially each day through the week as the ridge builds
overhead. Deep layer moisture will remain pooled over our forecast
area through Monday while a weak surface boundary also remains
oriented across portions of our CWA. We expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop both days in the
very moist and unstable environment that will be in place over our
region along with the presence of the boundary. Convective
coverage may tend to become more scattered in nature, especially
during the middle to latter part of the week as the ridging builds
further east over our region. Plentiful moisture and instability
will still support keeping daily POPs in the chance range each
day. /21

MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Moderate southwesterly flow this morning will decrease to
a light flow over the next few hours. For tonight and into early
next week, a light diurnal flow pattern develops, with westerly to
northwesterly flow developing each night and a southwesterly flow
developing each afternoon. By Tuesday, a light southerly to
southeasterly flow becomes established. Showers and storms are
expected to continue developing each morning. A few storms will be
capable of producing gusty winds and waterspouts. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  76  94  76  95  75  91  76 /  50  30  60  30  60  20  50  20
Pensacola   91  78  93  78  93  78  90  79 /  40  20  50  50  60  30  50  30
Destin      90  80  91  79  92  80  90  80 /  40  20  50  60  60  40  60  30
Evergreen   93  73  94  74  95  73  93  73 /  70  40  70  30  60  20  50  10
Waynesboro  92  73  94  73  95  71  96  73 /  70  30  70  20  50  10  50  10
Camden      91  73  94  73  93  72  93  73 /  70  30  70  30  50  10  50  10
Crestview   94  75  94  75  96  74  93  74 /  60  30  70  40  60  20  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through Sunday evening
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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