576
FXUS65 KMSO 110954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
354 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Warming trend Friday into the weekend, with moderate heat risk
impacts across low elevations of central Idaho

-  Next system arrives Monday into Tuesday, with potential for
  backdoor cold front, northeast winds, and recreation impacts.

A ridge of high pressure will be building across the Pacific
Northwest causing a warming and drying trend for the region.
Sunday still appears to be the warmest day as afternoon
temperatures will be running around 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. Once again the low valleys of north central Idaho from
Orofino to Riggins will be experiencing moderate heat risks as
highs will be in the triple digits and overnight temperatures
struggling to drop below 70 degrees.

The models continue to trend towards a significant disturbance
dropping out of British Columbia into the Northern Rockies Monday
into Tuesday. This disturbance will bring temperatures around 10
degrees below average by Tuesday along with gusty northeasterly
winds. The latest consensus of the models are showing
precipitation across much of western Montana. Around 30% of the
model clusters are showing a closed low pushing into the region
which would cause the majority of the region to receive
precipitation with even the higher elevations of Glacier NP
potentially receiving snow by Tuesday morning.

A warming and drying trend develops quickly over the region by the
mid to latter part of next week as a ridge builds over the area.



&&

.AVIATION...A ridge will be building over the region today causing
fair flying conditions. The winds are anticipated to be relatively
light with a westerly component during the afternoon hours. A few
fair weather cumulus clouds are expected to develop this afternoon
and be mainly confined over the terrain. Both the wind and clouds
will diminish after sunset this evening.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$