943
FXUS61 KPBZ 061135
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slightly less humid afternoon today in wake of a cold front
with lots of sunshine. Dry weather returns through Monday with
temperatures rising well above normal by Monday afternoon. 90
degree weather returns next week along with warmer overnights.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday.

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With the trough still to the west, a few showers or storm are
still possible to develop through the dawn hours. Much of the
potential should be diminished by 12Z. Passage of a surface
trough and upper wave will diminish precipitation chances west
to east and offer a slight reprieve from the warm, muggy
conditions by dawn.

Heading into the coming day, drier southwest flow and ridging
at the surface will support dry weather today. Lingering
morning stratus clouds are expected to break up with a scattered
to broken cumulus field developing in the late morning to early
afternoon; weak cool advection plus the cloud cover should aid
temperature returning to more seasonal values. More notably for
some, drier air will mix to the surface and bring relief to the
region from the multiple day experience of humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather
  persists.
- Fog potential for Sunday and Monday mornings.

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By tonight, the airmass will move into place over the region.
Temperatures are expected to be more normal. With moist air
returning to the region and potential breaks in cloud cover, fog
development, especially in river valleys, is expected for Sunday
morning. Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic
will support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next
upper trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk
concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat
indices above advisory criteria remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.
- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the
wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating
to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature.
Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means
showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at
least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other
severe hazards.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement. Trends are
difficult to pin down at this time, but after the remnants of
Beryl moves east, the cold front will finally pass through
leading to potentially drier weather to end the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence forecast. IFR clouds are possible through 14Z at
a few airports in wake of the cold front. After 14Z...VFR
weather returns the balance of the forecast. DUJ and FKL could
keep MVFR CIGS through 15Z if they don`t mix out like other
airports. Wind will be west today with gusts around 20kts.

.Outlook...
VFR weather through Monday. A chance of MVFR or lower brief
flight restrictions are possible starting Tuesday with the next
weather system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier/Shallenberger/98
NEAR TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Frazier/Shallenberger
AVIATION...McMullen