195
FXUS62 KRAH 280644
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
243 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the New England coast today and tonight.
A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across
the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area late in
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Increasing heat and humidity after one day relief.

Most areas broke long strings of 90+ degree days on Thursday. RDU
had a string of 14 days 90+ broken with a high of 88 Thursday. In
addition, only 0.01 of rain had fallen during this time.
Greensboro`s 90+ degree streak ended Thursday at 6 straight. Most
impressive; however, is the streak of 17 straight days of having nor
measurable rainfall at Greensboro. The 0.04 Thursday broke the
string, but brought very little benefit. The clouds and a bit of
light rain Thursday did bring the temperature relief, but that is
now over.

High pressure will bring a relatively comfortable morning across the
region today. However, as the high shifts off the New England coast
during the day, the surface flow will veer from light NE to SE.
After the dew points mix out some this morning into the early
afternoon under the dry air, they will begin to increase again later
this afternoon from the SE. Dew points will then increase into the
70s for almost all areas this evening and overnight. Highs today
should top out in the lower to mid 90s.

The much needed chance of rain looks meager. Models suggest a few
widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
later this afternoon and evening, south and west of the Triangle.
Areas from the Triangle north and east are likely to remain dry.

The highest chance of showers (30 percent or so) will be near the
seabreeze boundary late today and this evening that should shift
well inland into the Southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Models
then show some low level convergence and a bit of a maximum in
instability over the Southern Piedmont or Sandhills during
the early to mid evening. Lows tonight will return to the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again
Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Head
Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat
indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs
will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm
along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western
Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday
night with little to no showers expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...

This above-normal temp stretch will hit yet another crescendo this
weekend, with convection chances peaking Sun/Sun night. A brief temp
respite arrives early next week, however this will quickly give way
to a return to excessive heat midweek.

Sat-Sun night: Well above normal temps and high dewpoints return
Sat, as low level thermal ridging and and warm/stable mid levels
spread in from the W and WSW. A potent northern stream shortwave
trough swings through the upper Midwest and N Great Lakes Sat but
the main band of westerlies holds N of NC, leaving us within a
regime of light steering flow. Weak surface troughing will be in
place through the Piedmont, but a loose low level height field
yielding weak low level flow will limit any low level mass
convergence. As such, any storms Sat are apt to be weakly forced and
more pulse-type, focusing on subtle boundaries and the sea breeze.
PW will be rebounding Sat, with model projections of values surging
over 2" through the NC Piedmont, so expect scattered late-day
coverage despite the lack of a focus or strong mechanism to force
ascent. Thicknesses and surface dewpoints will rebound as well,
supporting highs Sat in the low-mid 90s and heat index values of 100-
105 in all but NW sections. By Sun/Sun night, the mid level trough
will dig positively and somewhat strongly over extreme SE Canada and
the St Lawrence Valley into the Northeast, with a corresponding
strengthening in cyclonic mid level flow over our area as the
attendant surface cold front approaches late in the day. Low level
thicknesses rise to 10-15 m above normal ahead of the front with
surface dewpoints also likely to be quite high, well into the 70s
with only modest afternoon increases given low level moisture influx
ahead of the front. Sun is likely to be another day of dangerous
heat, with highs mostly in the mid 90s and heat indices again around
100-105 over most of the area. Sun should have the highest rain
chances, as most deterministic models show PW rising to highly
anomalous values around 2.5" along with moderate SBCAPE and decent
(but still less than ideal) deep layer bulk shear. Will continue
with a period of likely pops Sun afternoon and evening, extending
into the overnight in the S.

Mon-Thu: The front will settle to our S for Mon/Tue with high
pressure nosing in from the N, resulting in mostly dry weather
(except for pops in the S Mon, a nod to a possible slower frontal
progression). The mid level trough extending down through the Mid
Atlantic early Mon will shift offshore by Tue as ridging aloft
builds anew from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley, so expect the
mostly dry weather to persist through mid week at least. As the
surface ridge pushes out over the open NW Atlantic by Wed, the
oppressive heat will return. After near normal highs and gloriously
low dewpoints in the 60s Mon/Tue, we should see highs in the mid-
upper 90s return for Wed and July 4th, with very low chances for
showers and storms. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 149 AM Friday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 06z/Sat.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun
mornings with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly
afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected
early to mid week next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 28:
KGSO: 76/1969
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KGSO: 77/1970
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Badgett/Luchetti
CLIMATE...RAH