Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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872 FXUS62 KRAH 290701 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and more humid air mass will become established across the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday bringing a chance of storms. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday... High heat and humidity return. The heat and humidity return this afternoon and tonight. High pressure continues to exit the New England coast this morning with a SE return flow across our region. The flow will become more S-SW today and the higher temperatures and humidities will come back quickly. To go along with the high heat and humidity, there will be little chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. There is a small (slight chance) in the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain, and over the far western Piedmont (closer to the seabreeze, differential heating, and pre-frontal trough) for possible triggers. Otherwise, it will be dry. Highs this afternoon will surge into the 90s in all areas. Dew points are forecast to rise into the 70s before mixing out a bit by mid afternoon. It appears that the heat indices will likely range between 100 and 105. We are still contemplating a heat advisory, especially for the urban areas around Wake, Durham, and Cumberland counties where lows tonight will struggle to fall below 80. When the nighttime temperatures stay up in the 80s much of the night, the chances of heat illnesses rise. Lows in the rural areas should be in the mid to upper 70s. A decision of the heat advisory will be made by 400 AM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Hot and humid, but a good chance of thunderstorms to bring cooling relief. High heat and humidity will be the rule of the day at least until scattered thunderstorms begin to develop in the early to mid afternoon. Heat indices may very well be higher Sunday than today if the clouds/storms hold off until mid to late day (which appears the case for the eastern areas). Temperatures will get an early start given the lows expected to be near 80 at many locations. Actual highs in the lower to mid 90s are expected, with heat indices possibly 105-109 from Raleigh and Durham south and east through the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Heat indices may top out near 100 in the normally cooler NW Piedmont region before the chance of storms. Given the high heat and humidity, instability MLCapes 2000-2500 J/kg should result increasing the chance of strong to locally severe storms. However, the stronger flow aloft is generally limited this far south and southwest. SPC has placed at least the NE quad of our region in a slight risk, with a marginal risk over the rest of central NC. The primary threat will be local damaging wind. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the evening, especially from the Triangle Area south and east. Hopefully, this will bring some cooling rain for areas that have had little rainfall in the past month. It will be cooler Sunday night after the front and hopefully rain pass the region. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 AM Saturday... Aloft, a trough will progress eastward through the Northeast and mid- Atlantic Mon/Mon night, while the mid-level anticyclone sits over the ARKLATEX. As the trough moves away from the East Coast, the high will once again build into the region from the west, sitting over the TN Valley/Deep South Tue and Wed. A series of northern stream s/w disturbances will track eastward through the northern CONUS Tue through Fri, with each successive s/w slowly suppressing the high southward. However, the high should generally remain over the Southeast US through Fri. At the surface, the cold front should be through NC Mon morning, with high pressure ridging into the area in its wake from a high moving eastward through the Great Lakes. As the high continues eastward through the Northeast and offshore Tue/Tue night, it will continue ridging southward into central NC. Once the high moves out over the Atlantic, a lee trough will develop, with swly flow and the advection of warm, moist air into the area taking over once again. Temperatures may actually be near to slightly below normal Mon and Tue, but once the warm advection commences on Wed, they will quickly rise back above normal Wed and remain above to well above normal through the end of the week. As for rainfall, aside from some possible lingering showers/storms in the east on Mon, the next best chance for appreciable rainfall looks to be Fri night. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 132 AM Saturday... IFR stratus is likely to develop at all terminals late tonight/early Saturday morning. Any lingering stratus should lift to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. After which, a few isolated showers/storms could impact KINT/KGSO this afternoon. However, coverage looks limited and mostly confined to the mountains. Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sunday morning with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 98/2019 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...RAH