Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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895 FXUS61 KRLX 280230 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clear and cool overnight under high pressure. Warm and increasingly humid on Friday. Another cold front crosses this weekend, with additional storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1030 PM Thursday... The forecast remains on track, as a warm evening evolves into a relatively comfortably cool night under a starlit sky. As of 750 PM Thursday... Forecast on track this quiet evening, with the cumulus field having largely dissipated already. As of 115 PM Thursday... Quite a bit of scattered to broken cu remains across the forecast area this afternoon. This should generally dissipate around sunset. Otherwise, high pressure building into the area will provide for a clear, calm, and cool night tonight. Some patchy fog is possible towards morning, but will quickly burn off by around 12-13Z. On Friday, surface high shifts east and heights build out ahead of approaching system. Temperatures and humidity will build across the region again, with high temperatures on Friday climbing back into the 90s for many lowland locations. Could have an isolated shower or storm on Friday, but most areas should remain generally dry. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... There are still some indications that a weak 500mb shortwave could move across the area Friday night, which may help trigger some isolated to scattered showers or storms overnight in the increasingly moist airmass. Add in an approaching front and diurnal destabilization during the day on Saturday, and we can expect scattered to widespread showers and storms Saturday in the warm sector ahead of the front. As the front approaches, a decent amount of shower and storm activity is likely to persist Saturday night, and won`t truly start to clear the area until the front finally crosses late Saturday night into Sunday. SPC did put us into a Marginal severe risk for most of the area for Saturday and Saturday night, with Slight risk over some of our northwestern counties, but a lot of that may be conditional on some breaks in cloud cover to allow for areas of enhanced destabilization. If we can get sufficient CAPE for strong storms, areas further north look more likely to have sufficient shear to allow for more organized storms and better severe potential. Regardless of severe potential, deterministic data and ensemble means are still showing likely PWATs above 2.0 inches, so heavy rain can be expected and WPC maintained the marginal excessive rainfall risk for the area. It will remain hot and humid Saturday ahead of the front, though cloud cover and precip may limit temps a bit cooler than Friday`s highs. Dew points will remain well into the 60s and lower 70s in the warm sector, making for some very muggy and uncomfortable nights. Heat index values on Saturday will we in the mid to upper 90s across a broad swath of the lower elevations. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Any lingering showers should quickly dissipate or depart to the east Sunday evening and night, with drier air working into the area. The drier air and gentle N`ly flow behind the front may be enough to hold off fog across most of the area, despite the expected precip Saturday into Sunday, but patchy fog was put into some of the more protected valley locations where decoupling may be achieved. Regardless, Sunday night through Monday night look to be 36 hours of amazing weather considering we`ll be starting the month of July. We can expect dew points down into the 50s (40s on the higher ridges), with overnight lows in the 50s, and Monday`s highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s (60s in the mountains). However, the surface high slides off to the east by Tuesday, bring S`ly winds back into play, and with the upper-level ridge moving overhead, we`ll quickly return to some summertime heat and humidity. The area looks to remain dry on Tuesday under the crest of the upper-level ridge, but as that ridge starts to get suppressed southward by mid-week, shower and storm chances look to return to the CWA. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 750 PM Thursday... High pressure passing north of the area tonight will provide mainly VFR conditions as it leaves a light gradient flow in place. This should limit fog to the deeper valleys in and near the mountains, with IFR fog forecast for EKN 09-11Z. Fog along the Elk River should not climb over the runway at CRW. Light north to northeast surface flow will become light and variable to calm tonight, basically veering to light south to southeast by Friday morning, and then becoming a bit gusty in the mountains Friday afternoon, as the high moves off to the east. The resulting increase in humidity may allow for the pop up late afternoon shower or thunderstorm over southern portions of the area. Light north flow aloft will likewise veer to light east tonight, and then light south overnight, and then strengthen some from the south Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More valley fog may develop overnight than currently predicted. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 06/28/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/SL SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...TRM