618
FXUS63 KSGF 282315
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
615 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible (30-70% chance) tonight into Saturday
  morning north of I-44. High winds and large hail will be the
  main concerns, but confidence is limited and coverage may be
  sparse.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Ozarks from 10am through
  8 pm tomorrow with Heat Index values between 103 and 110
  across the region.

- Additional rainfall Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- A break from the heat Sunday with additional rain chances
  early, but a quick return to hot and humid conditions early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Residual shower activity, some of which may not be reaching the
ground, from overnight convection in Kansas was moving across
the region this afternoon. The associated cloud cover was
helping to limit the heat this afternoon. Most readings across
the Ozarks were in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees or right
around average for this time of year.

An upper level wave, albeit weak, along with an inverted trough
across the plains was helping to tighten the surface gradient
this afternoon. This has allowed for gusty winds to develop with
20-30kt gusts measured at times. As the upper trough moves east
overnight tonight it will begin to drag trough and attendant
cold front across the plains towards the Ozarks.

Looking at the synoptic pattern and output for CAMS for tonight
into Saturday morning there is a potential for some strong to
severe storms. The CAMS were either rather robust with
convection or non-existent. In looking at the  output, there is
the possibility for wind gusts to 60 mph and hail to quarters
in size where storms can take advantage of the instability in
place (MLCAPE 2000-3000j/kg) however, lapse rates are modest and
convergence is not really strong. The best potential loos to be
across central Missouri, though if a cold pool develops or the
system develops into an MCS it may make its way to the Arkansas
State line, but question remain in this occurring. With that
said there is a SPC Slight and Marginal risk across the northern
portions of the Ozarks for tonight, after Midnight into
Saturday.

During the day Saturday temperatures are expected to climb into
the middle to upper 90s with heat indicies in the 103 to 110
range thanks to strong warm air and moisture advection ahead of
the cold front. This has resulted in a Heat Advisory being
issued for all of the area from 10am through 8pm.

With the heat and the vicinity of the front as it moves south,
isolated showers or storms may develop during the day but
coverage and confidence in this is limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The cold front will make its way through the region Saturday
night into Sunday morning with the front and any attendant
storms or rainfall moving south of the region by lunchtime.

The cooler air moving into the region behind the front will
bring a respite from the heat with high Sunday only in the lower
to middle 80s.

The break in the heat will be brief however as ridging returns
and temperatures climbing rapidly into the 90s with heat
indicies above 100 again by the middle of next week. If these
trends continue, heat headlines may be needed again next week.

Precipitation chances return mid- to late-week as another trough
moves through behind the ridge. Hot an humid conditions are thus
expected through next week and into the 4th of July with
additional chances for showers and storms into the coming
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Storms are starting to develop across northeastern Kansas early
this evening. Storm develop will continue to the east this
evening into northwestern Missouri then this activity will start
to push south overnight. There are still questions on how far
south the activity will make tonight with the chances
generally along and north of I-44 with the best chances north
of Highway 54. Scattered showers will remain possible during the
day on Saturday but coverage will overall be low. A front will
move south into the area Saturday evening and night with
additional shower and storm chances.

Southerly winds will continue this evening and could be gusty at
time. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly on
Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Nelson