536
FXUS61 KALY 242327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure builds into the region, clouds will
start to decrease across the region along with a diminishing wind
for tonight. High pressure will allow for dry and sunny weather on
Tuesday, with comfortable levels of humidity.  Warm and more humid
conditions are expected on Wednesday, along with some afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 725 PM EDT, an upper-level low is now located
near the coast of Maine and will continue to depart farther to
the east tonight. Weak upper level ridging and surface high
pressure then builds into the region by daybreak Tuesday.
Showers have been quickly decreasing in coverage over the past
hour or so but a few batches still remain, mainly for areas just
south and east of the City of Albany. These showers may be
enhanced by Mohawk-Hudson Convergence (MHC) with northerly winds
down the Hudson Valley and northwesterly winds down the Mohawk
Valley (per CSTAR research). These showers will continue to
diminish over the next couple of hours with dry weather then
expected the rest of the night with decreasing clouds. Some
patchy fog will likely develop overnight, especially for areas
that saw rain today and where winds trend light to calm.

Previous Discussion:
As of 345 PM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located over
Vermont. With the cold pool overhead, 850 hpa temps have fallen
to +8 C, which is much lower than recent days. At the surface,
our region remains situated between a departing area of low
pressure off the coast of New England and an area of high
pressure over the Midwest. With a decent pressure gradient in
place, there have been gusty west to northwest winds this
afternoon. Some gusts have approached 30 mph at times.

With the cyclonic flow in place and cool temps aloft, widespread
stratocu clouds have developed across the region. In addition,
some brief instability showers have been occurring across the
region, especially for areas north and west of the Capital
Region. These spotty showers will start to diminish this
evening, as the upper level low continues to depart and the loss
of daytime heating helps allows for more stable conditions
within the lower portion of the troposphere.

Overnight, clouds will be decreasing across the region, as some
drier air works into the region and surface high pressure builds
into the area. Skies will become mostly clear by the late night
hours and winds will be decreasing as well. Some patchy fog
could develop in some sheltered areas where the wind can go
calm, but this will be fairly isolated. Otherwise, it will be a
comfortable and quiet overnight, with temps down into the 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to allow for quiet weather through
the day on Tuesday. Behind the departing upper level trough,
heights and temps aloft will be rapidly rising on Tuesday. 850
hpa temps will reach +16 C by late Tuesday. Valley areas will be
up into the mid to upper 80s for highs, with upper 70s to low
80s in the high terrain. Despite the warm temps, dewpoints will
remain comfortable in the 50s thanks to the deep mixing and the
low level flow out of the west. Skies will be fairly sunny
through the day, but some clouds will start to increase for late
in the day.

On Tuesday night, temps will milder than Monday night, with lows
in the 60s. Some passing clouds are expected and maybe a few
light showers across northwestern areas as warm front starts
approaching from the west.

Our area will be within a warm sector for Wednesday. Upper level
shortwave trough will be moving from the Great Lakes towards the
Northeast on Wednesday with a surface cold front approaching
from the west and some showers and thunderstorms look to develop
across the area. With a warm and more humid air mass in place,
there should be some instability to work with across the region.
12z NAM suggest SBCAPE values may exceed around 1000 J/kg on
Wednesday. Decent deep-layer shear looks to be in place as well,
so any storms that develop could become organized. SPC has a
marginal to slight risk across the region, with the best threat
for organized storms across southern areas, where there will be
the best overlap of instability, shear and storm coverage. These
storms could linger into Wed night as well depending on the
exact timing of the cold front.

Temps will be rather warm again on Wednesday with highs well
into the 80s to low 90s. With dewpoints creeping higher, heat
index values could approach advisory criteria in the mid Hudson
Valley. Temps should fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s behind the
front on Wednesday night, with some clearing expected late.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period will begin with the 500 hPa trough axis
shifting east and high pressure building into the Northeast
behind a surface cold front. This will contribute to dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

Ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement with the
evolution of a shortwave trough at 500 hPa that will progress
eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday and
Sunday. A warm front with the associated surface low is forecast
to lift northeast through the CWA Saturday morning. Low level
flow within the warm sector of the surface cyclone will advect
tropical moisture into the CWA with NAEFS/ENS mean PWAT
increasing to over 1.75" by Saturday evening (above the 90th
percentile of KALB sounding climatology for late June/early
July). The abundant moisture will support medium to high
(50%-80%) chances for precipitation late Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning as the trough and surface cyclone move
east of the forecast area. Based on the progressive nature of
the system, the likelihood of flash flooding is currently very
low (5% chance or less) despite the abundant moisture being
advected into the region. While vertical wind shear greater than
30 knots will be supportive of organized convection, there is
uncertainty with regards to how much destabilization will be
able to occur within the warm sector of the surface cyclone.
Therefore, the likelihood of strong/severe thunderstorms
currently looks to be low (less than 15%). The system is
expected to exit the area Sunday evening with drier conditions
expected early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z/Wed...An upper level low will continue to depart the
region tonight with surface high pressure building into the
area for Tuesday. VFR conditions are in place at KALB/KGFL/KPOU
with MVFR cigs at KPSF. Most of the shower activity has ended
but will keep VCSH for a couple more hours at KPSF given radar
trends. Clouds will gradually clear tonight keeping or trending
all TAF sites to VFR conditions. Patchy fog may develop at
KGFL/KPSF later tonight so included TEMPOs for IFR/MVFR vsbys,
respectively, starting around 07z/Tue. VFR conditions then
expected throughout the day Tuesday with just some developing
fair weather cumulus and high cirrus.

North to northwesterly wind around 10 kt will decrease to 5 kt
or less tonight. A few gusts to around 20 kt may continue at
KPSF for a couple more hours. Wind will become westerly on
Tuesday at around 10 kt, except southwesterly at KGFL.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Humphrey
AVIATION...Rathbun