Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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349 FXUS61 KBGM 220223 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1023 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers or thunderstorms are expected over western portions of the Twin Tiers late and Northeast PA into the late evening hours. This activity will be followed by some overnight fog in the valleys and then dry and seasonably warm conditions for Sunday. Next week looks to be more active with a chance of showers on most days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 1015 PM Update... Minimal changes were needed with this forecast. Showers have mostly moved through the region but some isolated showers cannot be ruled out yet tonight. Areas under the clouds have stayed warmer and not cooled off as quickly as forecasted, so some updates were needed to the hourly temperatures. 625 PM Update... PoPs were increased over Steuben County as showers and isolated storms slowly move through. While rainfall intensities have decreased, we continue to monitor for any hydro issues. Back building has lead to some minor issues in nearby Allegany County. Between Steuben County and I-81, light rain showers will be possible and thunderstorm activity should be minimal given the more stable environment. Besides PoPs, sky cover was also touched up to better match satellite and surface observations. 200 PM Update... Shortwave moving out of western Ontario has started to trigger thunderstorms across western NY. Blended guidance suggests this trend will continue into the western third of CNY and NEPA during the late afternoon and evening before dropping south. Current forecast is generally on track with latest model guidance and statistics featuring our highest probabilities in the Finger Lakes and west-central Southern Tier counties with little to no rain further east. Highest CAPE and shear values remain well off to our SW thus concern for severe storms is waning. Once the upper waves moves south/east later tonight...partial clearing will take place allowing for possible valley fog overnight. Dewpoints are up with the approaching wave which will help. Ridging builds in behind the departing wave for Sunday as surface high pressure flexes in again from New England and skies should continue to become partly to mostly sunny again by Sunday afternoon. Quiet weather continues through Sunday night although the skinny upper ridge over us tomorrow will break down fairly quickly allowing clouds to begin racing in overnight Sunday in preparation for increasing rain chances again on Monday. Blended model temperatures from the NBM looked reasonable through Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 220 PM Update... Sharp upper level ridge continues to shift east on Monday morning placing our region inbetween features. Surface high pressure will be well off to our east with a short wave moving through Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Mondays forecast will depend on how long high pressure holds. Once moist air mass over rules, showers will work their way into the region from west to east. PoPs in the form of light rain showers look to slowly work into areas west of I-81 by Monday afternoon, overspreading the area Monday night before slowly tapering off Tuesday. As ridging amplifies over the southeastern US, another shortwave approaches the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening with more showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures during this period will be near normal with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 220 PM Update... Relatively active pattern continues during this period as upper level pattern amplifies. Placement of the upper level ridge over the southeast will keep our region under persistent southerly flow. This will allow a stream of embedded disturbances to continue to trail into the region. As a result afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through Thursday. Upper level trough dips into the region later in the period keeping shower chances around through the weekend as well. Rainfall appears to be light in nature with no hazardous weather expected at this time. Forecasted temperatures will remain comfortable with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 740 PM Update Any thunderstorms look to stay away from our taf sites this evening; the only exception being AVP, where t`storms could approach at least in the general vicinity. Decided to not include any tempo/prob 30 groups here at this time, and will amend the taf if t`storm probabilities increase for the airfield. Otherwise, a few light showers possible at ELM, BGM and maybe ITH through 06z...then dry weather prevails the rest of the overnight and through the day on Sunday. There will be SCT mid level VFR clouds around and some BKN higher clouds. Confidence for fog at ELM is lower than usual due to mid level clouds lingering until 06-08z, but then some breaks in the clouds should allow fog to develop. Therefore, went ahead with IFR/LIFR fog here from about 08-14z Sunday morning, with tempo patchy fog possibly developing between 05-08z. The fog burns off by around 14z, then it returns to VFR at ELM. Winds will be light east-southeast to southerly less than 10 kts. .Outlook... Sunday evening through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog restrictions possible late. Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...BTL/JAB SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...JAB/MJM