761
FXUS61 KBGM 180644
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild
weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend
for most of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

240 AM Update:

High pressure will remain in control over most of the area
today and Thursday. There is a small chance for a few isolated
showers to graze our far southern counties in NE PA tonight
through Thursday morning, but the majority of the area will
remain dry. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic
Coastline will track out to sea tonight. This system will likely
only spread high clouds across most of our area, other than
that small chance for a few showers across the far south.
Temperatures will remain warm today and tomorrow with highs in
the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update...

Low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will lead to some
scattered clouds Thursday through Friday, but shower activity
associated with this system looks to struggle to make it as far
north and west as our area. A slight chance of showers (less
than 20%) is possible through Friday evening for portions of NE
PA and the southern Catskills, but if the low shifts a bit
farther west closer to the coast, this could lead to a slight
increase in the chance for showers. There is also a
northeasterly low level jet that seems to develop Thursday into
Friday over southern New England into northern New Jersey and
if this happens to shift north and west, this could also lead to
an increase in moisture in the higher terrain. High
temperatures will be running above average Thursday and Friday
ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Lows Thursday and
Friday night will be mainly in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM Update...

Saturday through Monday is expected to be largely dry as
surface high pressure noses down over the area from the
northeast and upper level ridging develops from the west. A weak
backdoor cold front looks to push through the area Saturday and
with east to northeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to
become more seasonable Sunday through early next week. The next
chance for showers looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as the next
frontal boundary approaches.

Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low
70s over the Catskills to the upper 70s across the western part
of the CWA. Highs Sunday through early next week look to be in
the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be cooling down by
early next week with lows from the mid 40s to the mid 50s come
Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with widespread high clouds will persist through
the period, with the exception being ELM where valley fog is
expected through this morning. Fog at KELM will lift by 14Z,
resulting in a return to VFR conditions there.

.Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at
ELM during the early morning hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK