296
FXUS63 KBIS 301111
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually end from west
  to east through this morning. Although a few may linger into
  the afternoon hours mainly in the James River Valley through
  the Turtle Mountains.

- Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, then go on a
  warming trend to near or slightly above average through the
  weekend and into early next week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances become scattered on Friday.
  Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will then return
  Sunday through the first half of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers continue over much of the forecast area as a low
pressure circulation exists over north central/northwest ND.
This maintains a cluster of showers in the northwest and north
central, while another cluster is moving into the southwest and
south central from South Dakota. Adjusted PoPs based on the
latest observations and radar imagery. There`s been very few
lightning strikes observed through the night. However,
maintained a slight chance of thunder through the morning hours.
These showers, along with the occasional rumble of thunder, are
still expected to gradually end from west to east this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

As a surface trough propagates eastward this morning, showers,
along with a few thunderstorms, will continue ending from west
to east. By noon, most precipitation will have ended, although
there may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains.
Isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of
thunder, may wrap into the northwest this afternoon and evening.

Quasi-stationary upper low over south central Canada will
persist this afternoon through Sunday night. As a result, a
couple more shortwaves will impact the area. The first one is
Friday afternoon and evening where scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible. The second one is sometime Sunday
into Sunday night where additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop. A few severe thunderstorms aren`t
totally out of the question on Sunday as supported by CSU
machine learning.

Once the quasi-stationary upper low becomes more progressive and
kicks off to the east Sunday night into Monday, a trailing, yet
subtle ridge will meander over the area. This will lead to dry
conditions and slightly warmer temperatures in the west. Models
are in fair agreement that another upper low/trough may pass
through sometime Monday night through Tuesday night, which could
generate additional showers and thunderstorms.

Overall, cooler conditions are on tap for today with highs
mainly in the 60s west to low 70s east. There will be a very
subtle overall warming trend through early next week. However,
highs are forecast to remain seasonable to seasonably warm from
Saturday through the first half of next week. Lows will be
mainly in the 40s tonight and Friday night before reaching
mostly the 50s for the remainder of the period. Other than
tonight and in the west Friday night, these too are seasonable
to seasonably warm for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Showers, perhaps with an occasional rumble of thunder, have the
potential to impact all terminals this morning. While any
showers or thunderstorms are ongoing, reductions in ceilings and
visibility are possible. Once showers end, VFR ceilings and
visibility should prevail through the remainder of the period.
Winds that became fairly light over the night are expected to
pick up out of the west this morning and afternoon before
diminishing this evening and overnight. LLWS continues at KJMS
and should end in the next few hours.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken