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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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296 FXUS63 KBIS 301111 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually end from west to east through this morning. Although a few may linger into the afternoon hours mainly in the James River Valley through the Turtle Mountains. - Temperatures will be slightly cooler today, then go on a warming trend to near or slightly above average through the weekend and into early next week. - Shower and thunderstorm chances become scattered on Friday. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will then return Sunday through the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers continue over much of the forecast area as a low pressure circulation exists over north central/northwest ND. This maintains a cluster of showers in the northwest and north central, while another cluster is moving into the southwest and south central from South Dakota. Adjusted PoPs based on the latest observations and radar imagery. There`s been very few lightning strikes observed through the night. However, maintained a slight chance of thunder through the morning hours. These showers, along with the occasional rumble of thunder, are still expected to gradually end from west to east this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 As a surface trough propagates eastward this morning, showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will continue ending from west to east. By noon, most precipitation will have ended, although there may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains. Isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of thunder, may wrap into the northwest this afternoon and evening. Quasi-stationary upper low over south central Canada will persist this afternoon through Sunday night. As a result, a couple more shortwaves will impact the area. The first one is Friday afternoon and evening where scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. The second one is sometime Sunday into Sunday night where additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. A few severe thunderstorms aren`t totally out of the question on Sunday as supported by CSU machine learning. Once the quasi-stationary upper low becomes more progressive and kicks off to the east Sunday night into Monday, a trailing, yet subtle ridge will meander over the area. This will lead to dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures in the west. Models are in fair agreement that another upper low/trough may pass through sometime Monday night through Tuesday night, which could generate additional showers and thunderstorms. Overall, cooler conditions are on tap for today with highs mainly in the 60s west to low 70s east. There will be a very subtle overall warming trend through early next week. However, highs are forecast to remain seasonable to seasonably warm from Saturday through the first half of next week. Lows will be mainly in the 40s tonight and Friday night before reaching mostly the 50s for the remainder of the period. Other than tonight and in the west Friday night, these too are seasonable to seasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers, perhaps with an occasional rumble of thunder, have the potential to impact all terminals this morning. While any showers or thunderstorms are ongoing, reductions in ceilings and visibility are possible. Once showers end, VFR ceilings and visibility should prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds that became fairly light over the night are expected to pick up out of the west this morning and afternoon before diminishing this evening and overnight. LLWS continues at KJMS and should end in the next few hours. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken