Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181818
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
118 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Quick update for observed trends early this afternoon.
Temperatures across southwest North Dakota will rapidly jump into
the 50s this afternoon with clearing skies and mixing. CAM trends
through their incoming 17 UTC iterations support fog potential
again tonight into Thursday morning across most of western and
central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 957 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Current surface weather observations and webcams show dense fog
over parts of northwest and west central North Dakota. NAM BUFR
forecast soundings and CAM model guidance suggest the fog will
continue through the morning, ending just before noon. Current
radar observations show light snow has changed over to light rain
just west of the Missouri River and south of Lake Sakakawea.
Expect any leftover light rain and drizzle to dissipate by the
early afternoon as high pressure begins building in from the
north.

UPDATE Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Light snow reported reaching the ground now south central so
raised the POPs to likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Light snow will likely continue through the morning hours across
west central North Dakota as mid-level convergence/frontogenesis
continues. Snow will change back over to light rain during the
late morning and early afternoon. Total accumulation of around an
inch or less is expected on grassy surfaces with little to no
accumulation expected on roads as road temperatures will remain
above freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Dry conditions will prevail across western and central North
Dakota for Wednesday night through Friday afternoon as high
pressure builds in from the west. This will allow for strong mid
April sunshine to warm the region well into the 40s and 50s on
Thursday and Friday with rapid snowmelt expected for any areas
that still have some snow on the ground.

A low developing over Colorado will give southern North Dakota
slight chances of light rain Friday evening and overnight.

A ridge will build over North Dakota on Saturday and Sunday. This
will usher in much warmer air into western and central North
Dakota with temperatures finally reaching into the low to mid 60s
on both Saturday and Sunday.

Chances for light rain and snow return to southern North Dakota
for Monday and Tuesday as a shortwave moves through from the
northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

IFR fog and stratus across northwest North Dakota will continue to
lift and scatter this afternoon. MVFR to VFR cumulus fields will
develop across most of western and central North Dakota this
afternoon through sunset. Widespread IFR/LIFR fog and stratus may
re-develop tonight into Thursday morning across most of western
and central North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...PA



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