706
FXUS64 KEPZ 292323
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
523 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy afternoon weather each day through the
weekend. Temperatures warm further next week as high pressure
builds over the region. Monsoon high pressure suggests
thunderstorm chances will be possible in the coming weeks.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Brief moisture intrusion pushed El Paso`s dewpoint up to 57
degrees around sunrise this morning, but diurnal mixing and
reestablishment of southwest flow has quickly eroded this
moisture. A few weak convective updrafts exists over the
Sacramento Mountains where terrain lifting is generating marginal
low level instability, however rain chances will continue to be
slim to none.

Mostly zonal flow through the rest of this week, keeping the
dryline boundary off to the east. Winds look to be on the lower
side, becoming low-end breezy each afternoon. No major changes in
day-to-day temperatures, with lowland highs in the upper 90s and
El Paso possibly reaching 100 degrees again over the weekend.

High pressure aloft over central Mexico will shift northward next
week as a large-scale Omega Blocking pattern sets up across much
of the western United States. Temperatures will continue to run
slightly above seasonal normals with the center of high pressure
directly overhead. El Paso can expect to see several more
100-degree days next week in the 101-104F range. The blocking
pattern will also allow cease the prevailing southwest flow and
thus allow for more chance at a moisture tap and isolated
thunderstorm chances as we head into early June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
out of the SW at 10-15 mph with gust to 20-25 knots. Winds will
decrease after sunset to 5-10 knots, becoming more westerly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Brief moisture intrusion this morning, with favorable RH
recoveries over the LNF and Sacramento Mountains. Moisture will
quickly exit this evening, leading to elevated fire danger again
on Thursday. Min RH 4-10% under west winds 10 to 15 mph tomorrow.
Ventilation will be Very Good by noon with transport due east.

Better overnight recoveries expected Friday/Saturday as moisture
from the east returns due to light overnight winds. Afternoon RH
will still be quite low. Wind direction back to the southwest
through the weekend, with peak gusts generally less than 25 mph.

Long-range models do suggest a reprieve from the ongoing fire
weather conditions. High pressure over the region will stop the
prevailing southwest flow and allow for better moisture return
from the east. Lighter winds and higher RH look probable late
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  97  67  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  92  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  96  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  93  58  96 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               46  70  47  73 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    60  93  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  84  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   54  95  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                56  91  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       64  94  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                56  96  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             59  98  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   61  97  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             57  92  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  94  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            55  93  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  95  57  97 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  93  62  96 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  92  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  84  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                50  81  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 48  80  49  81 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  51  86  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  91  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                53  92  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  87  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   51  89  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    53  93  54  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               55  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  54  88  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  92  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  92  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               55  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers