689
FXUS64 KEPZ 141727
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1127 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Warm temperatures with light winds can be expected for your
Tuesday. Breezy winds return Wednesday and Thursday, along with a
slight chance of rain over the mountains. Hot and dry weather
conditions return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy
afternoon winds and warming temperatures through the week.

Broad ridge overhead will lead to further warming for today, with
high temperatures topping out in the low 90s across the desert
lowlands, with breezy afternoon winds. Like yesterday, an isolated
shower or two will be possible over the the Black Range of the Gila
Wilderness. However, surface dewpoints remain relatively dry in the
mid-20s, suggesting very little to no precipitation occurring
with any shower that does form.

Weak Pacific low off the coast of southern California will move
inland on Wednesday, leading to breezy afternoon winds with a slight
cooling trend in temperatures by 2-5 degrees by Thursday. On
Thursday, broad and weak dynamics aloft associated with this weak
system will allow for sufficient enough moisture to infiltrate from
the north. This will promote low-end shower/thunderstorm chances for
portion of the forecast area. Mainly focused over Grant, Sierra, and
Otero Counties.

High pressure and ridging aloft will return to the region on Friday,
lasting through the remainder of the period. This will ultimately
promote warming temperatures through the weekend and into early next
week. Desert lowland high temperatures will reach the mid-90s this
weekend, with the possibility of El Paso`s first 100 degree day of
2024 on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Minimal to no aviation concerns expected today with VFR
conditions. Skies will be generally FEW-SCT250. Winds top out this
afternoon around 10 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots. Direction
will typically be from 230-270.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED today and Wednesday with
very dry conditions in place, along with breezy afternoon winds. Min
RH values will be below 15% for almost all locations, 15-20 percent
for the highest elevations. Winds will be 10-20 mph each afternoon
with Very Good to Excellent smoke ventilation rates.

Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast on
Thursday, mainly focused over the Gila and Sacramento Mtns. In
response to the increase in moisture, Min RH values will be above 15
percent for the Gila/Sacs and Sierra County. Winds remain breezy out
of the west/northwest at 15-20 mph.

Breezy winds continue through the weekend, along with drying
conditions and warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  59  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               89  55  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  44  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    87  57  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              80  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  63  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                92  56  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               84  58  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  65  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  55  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 89  61  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  58  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  78  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                76  47  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 75  47  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  78  50  78  49 /  10   0  10   0
Hillsboro                86  55  85  53 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  53  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             81  47  80  44 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   84  48  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    87  52  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               82  52  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  53  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   87  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           87  55  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown