459
FXUS63 KICT 192256
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely on this afternoon and evening

- Another round of severe storms looks to impact the region on
  Tuesday

- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday into next
weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper jet
energy/associated upper level wave quickly approaching southwest
Kansas. There is a warm front boundary which extends from
western Kansas into central Kansas. Storms are and should begin
developing over western Kansas and along this warm front
boundary. If a storm can stay latched on this boundary it would
have potential to produce higher end severe weather and even a
tornado. Additional storms will develop over southwest Kansas
and these storms will be in a higher based environment with cold
outflows expected and lower tornado potential. The cold pool
interaction should cause the storms to congeal quickly and form
a line of storms. The line of storms will grow upscale and
intensify, especially with the environment of high DCAPE and
orthogonal 0-3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supporting good
potential for balance on the leading edge of the line storms.
This balance could result in very destructive wind gusts over
80mph, especially for any segment of the line that takes on a
bowing structure. In addition, increasing low-level SRH and
orthogonal 0- 3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supports a few
QLCS tornadoes on leading edge when the line of storms
encounters better low level moisture. This activity will
continue eastward tonight and could have a trailing/lingering
line of storms near the KS/OK border past midnight.

The atmosphere looks more capped during the day on Monday and with
no upper level wave expected if anything can go it would be more
isolated and generally northwest/north of central Kansas. Model
signals continue to suggest another round of severe weather could
affect locations mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike for Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Stronger than normal upper jet winds and
alignment being more orthogonal to the dry line boundary supports
some discrete supercell potential along the dry line where all
severe weather hazards are in play(a few higher end severe storms
are possible in southeast Kansas). Meanwhile the cold front looks to
race southeast and quickly overtake the dry line which should cause
a line of storms to quickly zipper from northeast Kansas southward
into southern Kansas by Tuesday evening.

Wednesday looks to be the one quiet day of the week as surface high
pressure builds over Kansas, and drier air spreads southward in the
wake of Tuesday`s system. The quiet conditions looks to be short-
lived as the atmosphere tries to reload and become more active
across the region for Thursday into next weekend. Models continue to
show upper level flow regime remaining in a southwest-westerly
pattern with decent flow aloft, and a couple of upper waves moving
across the central plains. The combination of decent wind flow aloft
and ample moisture/instability nearby supports more opportunities
for severe weather to affect the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Severe storms will be the main concern this evening through
early tonight. Current area of intense convection across central
Kansas along just south of the I-70 corridor with strong winds,
hail, very low visibility in heavy rainfall. Next area of
severe convection was moving eastward across southwest Kansas
and will sweep eastward across central and south central Kansas
during the mid-evening hours, capable of damaging winds, hail
and low visibility in heavy rainfall. Strong inflow (south to
southeast winds) ahead of the convection with strong and
variable winds in the wake of the system later this evening.
Some MVFR stratus cigs are expected toward dawn.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...KED