466
ACUS11 KWNS 240813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240813
NDZ000-240945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...North-Central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450...

Valid 240813Z - 240945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail remains possible with the pair of supercells
moving southeastward across north-central North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells continue to progress gradually
southeastward across north-central North Dakota. Current storm
motion with the storm over Bottineau County is around 35 kt. The
storm farther west just crossing the international border is moving
a bit slower, with its motion estimated at closer to 30 kt. Both of
these supercells remain organized and intense, with recent MESH
indicating severe hail (particularly with the westernmost cell).

The lead/easternmost cell may begin weakening soon as it moves into
a less buoyant airmass, although the organized character of this
cell may allow it to persist farther east into greater stability
than would usually be expected. The westernmost cell should be able
to maintain it intensity for at least the next hour or so before it
too begins to weaken. Large hail will remain possible with these
storms, particularly the westernmost cell, for the next hour or two.
Given the forecast weakening of these storms with eastern extent, a
downstream watch is not currently anticipated, but convective trends
will still be monitored closely.

..Mosier.. 06/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   49320220 49049952 48319896 47849977 47980102 48540242
            49320220