Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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813 FXUS64 KOUN 191939 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern and central Oklahoma this evening, with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible. - Hot/humid conditions continue through Saturday. - Heat relief is expected by early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The main issue this evening will be storm potential. We have been getting some cumulus development along an area of confluent low- level winds from west central to north central Oklahoma, with some shower development in west central Oklahoma. We`ll likely see a few more storms develop this afternoon and evening. There is sufficient instability to see some isolated strong to potentially severe storms with some wind potential as downdraft CAPE is currently analyzed over 1500 J/kg. These scattered showers and storms will persist through mid-evening before diminishing by late evening. Although the front is moving into northwestern Oklahoma this evening, it is expected to wash out and not bring any significant cooling, so hot temperatures are expected again across the entire area Friday. Some thunderstorms will be possible across northern Oklahoma beginning Friday afternoon as a shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft moves northeast from New Mexico the central Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Storms remain possible across northern Oklahoma Friday evening as well, but the primary rain chances will be Saturday afternoon through early Monday morning as a longwave trough ejects from the southwestern United States toward the central Plains. The trend continues to be slower with the system and farther north with the precipitation area (at least initially), and will continue this trend in the precipitation timing and geography in our forecast. Right now there look to be good chances of showers and storms on Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front moves through the area, so hopefully we will not get hornswaggled out of these storms with the front. With the current expected timing of the front, temperatures will not be quite as hot on Sunday with more clouds and potentially areas of rain, and then the front brings more fall-like temperatures for early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail today through tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front this afternoon and evening, most numerous across north- central Oklahoma. The front will stall and then lift north tonight, with southwest winds becoming southerly once again at most sites and decreasing in speed this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 75 98 74 95 / 20 0 0 0 Hobart OK 75 100 72 98 / 20 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 101 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 101 71 95 / 10 20 0 20 Ponca City OK 71 98 75 98 / 30 10 20 10 Durant OK 73 99 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...08