004
FXUS64 KOUN 120733
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
233 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Patchy fog is possible this morning across western north Texas
and southwest Oklahoma, where was recent rainfall and winds are
light with clear skies. Any fog should dissipate by mid-morning.

Today will be the transition day toward hotter weather as mid-
level heights rise with the exit of the mid/upper-level low to the
southeast. The low-level thermal ridge will expand the northeast
in tandem with an expanding ~595 dam mid-level ridge centered
across the southwest U.S. This synoptic-scale pattern, combined
with increased insolation, will result in afternoon highs 5 to 10
deg F higher than yesterday--generally ranging from the upper 80s
to mid 90s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

By Thursday, the mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal
ridge will expand farther to the northeast as the center of the
ridge begins an eastward shift in response to an mid/upper-level
low approaching the California coastline. Even hotter temperatures
are expected with afternoon highs another ~5 deg F higher. These
hot temperatures will continue into Friday.

By late Friday, the aforementioned mid/upper-level low is
forecast to open up into a trough and begin to lift into the
Plains. This will result in a low to moderate chance (20 to 30%)
of showers and thunderstorms beginning across northwest Oklahoma
Friday night.

As the trough slowly moves across the Plains, there will be at
least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
northern half of Oklahoma through the upcoming weekend. The
uncertainty is southern extent of the trough`s influence. If the
latitude of the trough is farther to the south, there is the
potential more of the area may see a chance for rain during the
upcoming weekend. Outside of any thunderstorms, generally hot
temperatures in the 90s deg F will continue through the weekend.

By early next week, the mid-level ridge is forecast to be centered
across the eastern U.S. Tropical moisture may rotate around the
western periphery of ridge. A weakness in the ridge, combined with
this tropical moisture, will result in a low chance of showers
and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday. This
weakness may also result in temperatures a few degrees lower--
especially across southeast Oklahoma.

A cold front may also approach from the north Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but there remains uncertainty on how far south the
front will make it before it stalls. Probabilistic guidance
indicates the 12/00Z GFS is currently an outlier with its
significant cool down by next Wednesday (e.g., the 10th percentile
temperatures are 20+ deg F higher than the deterministic GFS).
Currently, the more likely scenario is a small to no cool down
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern
Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have cleared out of the area and VFR
conditions prevail now. The TAFs are written generally as VFR,
with the main exception being a TEMPO group of reduced visibility
at KLAW. There is some potential for MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities at KSPS and KCSM in the morning, but the probability
is around 30 percent so have kept these out of the TAFs.

KLAW continues to report visibilities of 6SM or less as it has
since 12Z, which does not appear to be representative of the
conditions, although as mentioned earlier, there is some potential
for some reduced visibilities briefly in the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         89  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  88  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           93  68 101  69 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     92  69  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         89  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26